关键词: 水资源, 可持续利用规划, 决策支持系统

Abstract: This paper deals with the concept,formulation and a case study of integrated model of sustainable water resources planning. Water resources development involves multiple objectives,which often conflict with each other and are not commensurable.In general,they are identified as social objective,economic objective,and environmental objective.Social and economic developm ent demands more water supply,and produces more waste,which has negative impacts on the environment.Environment deterioration will thwart economic growth and social progress.Economic development will make it possible to invest more money in environmental improvement and to increase water supply. Sustainable water resources planning aims to achieve a balane between these needs.The goal of this paper is to develop a model framework,which can assistin model design for sustainable water resources planning. Mathematically,an integrated model of sustainable water resources planning is a multiobjective programming model,which has maximum social,economic and environmental benefit objectives,subjectto a series of constraints.As to a specific region, sustainable water resources development means the soical-economic-environmental-water resources system develops in a harmony and ordered state.The model,which integrates water resources system state equation,environmrnt system state equation and macro-economic state equation,among other constratints can regulate the system to the designed goals while maintaining its performance within a specified range. In the case study,maximum GDP(Gross Domestic Production) and minm um COD (Chemical Oxygen Dissolution) discharge are designed as economic and environmental objectives respectively,and water resources budget equation,integrated enlarged reproduction and input-output equation,and stream flopw COD load equation etc are embedded as constraints. The sector output-value and allocation of fixed capital investment between economic sectors are decision variables.A water resources decision support system(WRDSS) is developed to gegerate solution to the model.Application of the WRDSS shows that the system can properly demonstrate macroeconomic state and environmental state under various water resources development policies and can assist decision-makers in evaluating water resources planning programs.

Key words: water resources, sustainable development planning, decision support system