地理研究 ›› 2000, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 37-44.doi: 10.11821/yj2000010006

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

水资源可持续利用规划耦合模型与应用

蒋业放, 梁季阳   

  1. 中国科学院地理研究所, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:1999-01-15 修回日期:1999-09-13 出版日期:2000-03-15 发布日期:2000-03-15
  • 作者简介:蒋业放(1965- ),男,广西融安人,中国科学院地理研究所博士研究生。从事水文地质和水文水资源研究,已发表论文10余篇。
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院“九五”重大资助项目(KZ951-A1-203);国家自然科学基金资助项目(49971020)

Integrated model of sustainable water resources planning:formulation and application

JIANG Ye-fang, LIANG Ji-yang   

  1. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:1999-01-15 Revised:1999-09-13 Online:2000-03-15 Published:2000-03-15

摘要: 介绍了水资源可持续利用规划耦合模型和应用实例。从数学形式上看,它是多目标优化模型,目标函数选用自由度较高并具竞争性的系统状态指标;约束条件应该包括各相关子系统的状态模拟方程,使模拟与优化实现耦合。在研究实例中,选用了GDP和COD排放量指标来表征研究区的经济发展和环境状况,约束条件主要包括水资源系统模拟模型和宏观经济系统扩大再生产—投入产出耦合模型。由于水资源可持续利用规划决策是半结构化的决策问题,开发决策支持系统辅助决策有助于提高决策的科学性和有效性。

关键词: 水资源, 可持续利用规划, 决策支持系统

Abstract: This paper deals with the concept,formulation and a case study of integrated model of sustainable water resources planning. Water resources development involves multiple objectives,which often conflict with each other and are not commensurable.In general,they are identified as social objective,economic objective,and environmental objective.Social and economic developm ent demands more water supply,and produces more waste,which has negative impacts on the environment.Environment deterioration will thwart economic growth and social progress.Economic development will make it possible to invest more money in environmental improvement and to increase water supply. Sustainable water resources planning aims to achieve a balane between these needs.The goal of this paper is to develop a model framework,which can assistin model design for sustainable water resources planning. Mathematically,an integrated model of sustainable water resources planning is a multiobjective programming model,which has maximum social,economic and environmental benefit objectives,subjectto a series of constraints.As to a specific region, sustainable water resources development means the soical-economic-environmental-water resources system develops in a harmony and ordered state.The model,which integrates water resources system state equation,environmrnt system state equation and macro-economic state equation,among other constratints can regulate the system to the designed goals while maintaining its performance within a specified range. In the case study,maximum GDP(Gross Domestic Production) and minm um COD (Chemical Oxygen Dissolution) discharge are designed as economic and environmental objectives respectively,and water resources budget equation,integrated enlarged reproduction and input-output equation,and stream flopw COD load equation etc are embedded as constraints. The sector output-value and allocation of fixed capital investment between economic sectors are decision variables.A water resources decision support system(WRDSS) is developed to gegerate solution to the model.Application of the WRDSS shows that the system can properly demonstrate macroeconomic state and environmental state under various water resources development policies and can assist decision-makers in evaluating water resources planning programs.

Key words: water resources, sustainable development planning, decision support system

PACS: 

  • TV212.2