关键词: 水资源承载力, 二元模式, 系统动力学, 关中

Abstract:

Along with the changes of glbal climate and intensification of human interference capacity to nature, water cycle in catchment evolvement from unitary natural pattern to dual dynamic pattern made up of original natural water cycle and artificial water cycle, and intrinsic water resources status change greatly So it is very important to study water resources bearing capacity in dual water cycle pattern According to characteristics of water resources bearing capacity, this paper establishes imitate model with system dynamics theory The model consists of modules about water resources exploitation,industry,agriculture,population and environment, which are integrated with a group of dynamic equations such as level equation,rate equation, assistant equation and so on And then programme in DYNAMO language is worked out After inputting original data and various velocities of variables, one can get water resources bearing capacity at varying development schemes Finally by applying the model to study water resources bearing capacity in Guanzhong region of Shaanxi province where water resource is inadequate lack, water resources bearing capacity indexes at four different schemes are, obtained from that acquires the satisfaction scheme which can promote coordinated development of society,economy and environment In natural and manpower dual water cycle patterns, comparing system dynamics with other methods, the former is easier to get regional water resources bearing capacity of vary schemes, the calculation results are much more represented, and can factually simulate harmoneous development status among society,economy and environment It is thus innovative and maneuverable to study water resources bearing capacity with system dynamics

Key words: water resources bearing capacity, dual mode, system dynamics, Guanzhong