地理研究 ›› 2002, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 294-304.doi: 10.11821/yj2002030004

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

未来中国的农业资源综合生产能力与食物保障

陈百明   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2001-11-10 修回日期:2002-03-22 出版日期:2002-06-15 发布日期:2002-06-15
  • 作者简介:陈百明(1951-),男,浙江上虞人,研究员,博士生导师。主要从事土地资源调查、评价、开发利用 及生产潜力研究。E-mail:chenbm@igsnrr.ac.cn.
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院创新工程重点项目(KZCX231005);国家自然科学基金重点课题资助(79930800)

On the comprehensive productive capacity and food security of future agricultural resources in China

CHEN Bai-ming   

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2001-11-10 Revised:2002-03-22 Online:2002-06-15 Published:2002-06-15

摘要:

首先预测了包括耕地资源和非耕地资源在内的农业资源的未来食物生产能力 ;然后以不同的营养供给量为标准 ,根据人口预测方案估算了未来三个时段的食物需求量 ;最后开展需求量与生产能力的平衡分析。在耕地资源生产的粮食数量与同期需求量的平衡分析中 ,2 0 10年以小康水平的食物结构作为需求标准 ,粮食生产能力略大于粮食需求量 ,2 0 30年和2 0 5 0年以较富裕和富裕水平的食物结构作为需求标准 ,粮食生产能力已小于粮食需求量。说明依靠有限的耕地资源难以满足中国从小康生活到富裕生活过程中的食物需求。以农业资源综合生产能力为基数的供需平衡分析表明 ,未来三个时段农业资源的综合生产能力所提供的食物数量均高于同期需求量。因此必须挖掘非耕地资源的食物生产潜力 ,依靠农业资源综合生产能力才能保障中国从小康生活到富裕生活过程中的食物需求。

关键词: 农业资源, 综合生产能力, 食物保障

Abstract:

Firstly, the paper predicted future food productive capacity of agricultural resources including cultivable and non cultivable land resources; secondly, the food demand was respectively forecasted in the coming three periods, based on the different nutrition supply amount according to the population forecast program; lastly, the comparison between the productive capacity and the demand was analyzed in the coming three periods The results shows that the grain productive capacity will be slightly greater than the demand because the food structure of prosperous level is as the demanding standard in 2010, however, in 2030 and 2050 the productive capacity will be smaller than the demand because the food structure of hypo affluent and affluent level is as the demanding standard So it would be difficult to satisfy the food demand during the period converting from the prosperous level to the affluent level if only depending on the limited cultivable land resources The balance analysis of supply and demand based on the comprehensive productive capacity of agricultural resources shows: the comprehensive productive capacity of agricultural resources would be higher than the food demand in the three coming periods The productive potential of non cultivable land resources should be exploited during the course of using limited cultivable land resources efficiently The food demand could be satisfied during the period converting from prosperous level to affluent level and the living standard could be improved only by depending on the comprehensive productive capacity of agricultural resources

Key words: agricultural resources, comprehensive productive capacity, food security