地理研究 ›› 2003, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (5): 551-559.doi: 10.11821/yj2003050003

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

SARS对中国入境旅游人数影响的研究

朱迎波1, 葛全胜1, 魏小安2, 董培南2, 何连生3, 彭唬1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 国家旅游局, 北京 100740;
    3. 清华大学环境科学与环境工程学院, 北京 100084
  • 收稿日期:2003-07-14 修回日期:2003-07-31 出版日期:2003-10-15 发布日期:2003-10-15
  • 作者简介:朱迎波(19772),女,辽宁建平人,博士研究生。研究方向:旅游规划、GIS。联系电话:64877506。 E-mail:zhuyb@igsnrr.ac.cn

A study on the effect of the SARS epidemic on the international tourist arrivals in China

ZHU Ying bo1, GE Quan sheng1, WEI Xiao an2, DONG Pei nan2, HE Lian sheng3, PENG Hu1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. National Tourism Administration, Beijing 100740, China;
    3. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • Received:2003-07-14 Revised:2003-07-31 Online:2003-10-15 Published:2003-10-15

摘要:

今年爆发的SARS对中国旅游业冲击很大。本文利用双变量ARIMA模型,结合突发事件后人的心理发展变化曲线研究本次突发事件对入境旅游人数的影响。根据同类事件旅游心理恢复期的研究,结合中国实际情况,笔者讨论了恢复期分别为12、18、24个月时,SARS对入境旅游人数的影响。当恢复期为12个月时,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为1796%,入境旅游人数共减少238493万人次;当恢复期为18个月时,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为1707%,入境旅游人数共减少311703万人次;当恢复期为24个月时,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为1655%,入境旅游人数共减少385233万人次。

关键词: SARS, 双变量ARIMA模型, 心理承受能力, 入境旅游人数

Abstract:

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) had been widely spread in China since the early days of this year, which badly affected the tourism industry of China The increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China was -6 28% in March and -31 01% in May, compared with the corresponding period of the last year Bivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to analyze the effect of SARS on the international tourist arrivals to China in this article And the parameter in the model is determined by man's psychological change Based on the study on the convalescence of similar events, and combined with the situation of China, SARS effect is analyzed under three assumptions: the convalescence may be twelve months, eighteen months and twenty four months after SARS finished separately If the convalescence is twelve months, the increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China may probably fall 17 96% by average, 40 01% by maximum after the outbreak of SARS, and the international tourist arrivals to China would reduce 23 8493 million on the basis of the model If per capita consumption can maintain the same as before, 4968 million dollars may be lost due to SARS in China If the convalescence is eighteen months, the increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China may probably fall 17 07% by average, 40 01% by maximum after the outbreak of SARS, and the international tourist arrivals to China would reduce 31 1703 million on the basis of the model If per capita consumption can maintain the same as before, 6493 million dollars may be lost due to SARS in China If the convalescence is twenty four months, the increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China may probably fall 16 55% by average, 40 01% by maximum after the outbreak of SARS, and the international tourist arrivals to China would reduce 38 5233 million on the basis of the model If per capita consumption can maintain the same as before, 8024 million dollars may be lost due to SARS in China

Key words: SARS, bivariate ARIMA model, man's psychological change, the international tourist arrivals to China

  • F592.99