地理研究 ›› 2003, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (6): 671-679.doi: 10.11821/yj2003060001

• 论文 •    下一篇

流域土地可持续利用规划方法及应用研究

郭怀成, 张振兴, 于湧   

  1. 北京大学环境学院, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2003-04-08 修回日期:2003-07-15 出版日期:2003-12-15 发布日期:2003-12-15
  • 作者简介:郭怀成(1953-),男,北京人,教授,博士生导师。主要从事环境科学研究和教学。
  • 基金资助:

    北京市科委资助项目(RK9921)

Sustainable basin land-use planning and its application

GUO Huai cheng, ZHANG Zhen xing, YU Yong   

  1. College for Environmental Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2003-04-08 Revised:2003-07-15 Online:2003-12-15 Published:2003-12-15

摘要:

土地利用既受自然环境条件的种种制约,又对生态环境,尤其是水资源和水环境,产生深刻影响。因此,进行系统规划优化土地利用结构、协调土地利用和其他经济活动及生态环境保护的关系是非常必要的。基于土地利用系统是一个本征性灰色系统,本文以灰色多目标规划(GMOP)方法为核心,提出了一套流域土地利用灰色多目标规划模型。该方法既可有效地处理信息的不完备性和系统的动态性,又可全面地表达土地利用的多目标性。在对密云土地利用规划研究中,通过应用交互式调整和情景分析方法,得到该模型在两种情景下的优化方案,并结合密云实际情况综合分析,进行了方案筛选。

关键词: 流域, 土地利用, 灰色多目标规划, 密云, 情景分析

Abstract:

Land resource is one of the most essential natural resources Land use is the linkage between human and nature and the basis of all other economic activities Moreover, it is subject to and has serious impact on natural environment There are a variety of lakes and reservoirs in China A large population live in the basins of these lakes and reservoirs Too much sediment and heavy water pollution are the key problems to these basins, both of which are correlated closely with land use Thus it is very important to optimize basinland use structure The grey multi objective programming (GMOP)model was employed worldwide to solve many optimization problems such as economic development planning in countryside and water resource planning GMOP can reconcile multiple and often conflicting objectives, address information insufficiency and optimize system performance At the meantime,land use system is characterized by dynamic, multi objectivity and information insufficiency Therefore, GMOP is a very useful tool to optimize basin land use structure In this study, GMOP is applied to solve sustainable basin land use system planning, taking Miyun County as a case study Centered in GMOP, the Grey Multi objective Programming to Basin Land use(GMOPBLU) model was built and solved with the interactive adjustment method The GMOPBLU model has the ability to simulate the characteristics of the land use system,and is a valuable tool for achieving the harmonization of conflicts between environmental and economic objectives The Interactive Adjustment Method was also used in the study to modify the model structure and the coefficients to reflect the features and the possible diverse preference of the stakeholders and decision makers The Scenario Analysis Method was applied to interpret the planning results In the present study,GMOPBLU model was used to the sustainable land use planning in Miyun County as a case study Two types of alternatives were produced and analyzed with the help of Scenario Analysis and Interactive Adjustment Method Through comparison and analysis, the optimal alternative was selected,which can provide a scientific and reliable foundation for policy making The case study confirmed the practicability and operability of the GMOPBLU model It showed that GMOPBLU model is a useful tool for sustainable basin land use planning

Key words: basin, land use, grey multi objective planning, Miyun County, scenario analysis

  • F301.24