地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2004, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (2): 147-156.doi: 10.11821/yj2004020002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

太仆寺旗土地利用变化时空格局的动态模拟

邓祥征1,2, 刘纪远1, 战金艳1, 赵涛1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院农业政策研究中心 北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2003-10-08 修回日期:2004-02-23 出版日期:2004-04-15 发布日期:2004-04-15
  • 作者简介:邓祥征(1971-),男,山东日照市人,博士。主要研究方向为资源环境时空信息耦合模型与自然、社 会与经济系统多维耦合分析。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金中国西部环境和生态科学重大研究计划重点项目(90202002);国家自然科学基金委优势群体项目(7002400)

Dynamic simulation on the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change in Taibus County

DENG Xiang-zheng1,2, LIU Ji-yuan1, ZHAN Jin-yan1, ZHAO Tao1   

  1. 1. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China
  • Received:2003-10-08 Revised:2004-02-23 Online:2004-04-15 Published:2004-04-15

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被引次数

402 | 48

摘要：

本文以太仆寺旗为研究区 ,通过将土地利用驱动因子分解为稳定少动控制因子、年际变动影响因子与社会经济驱动因子 ,求解了太仆寺旗土地利用变化驱动因子作用系数矩阵 ,揭示了不同类型因子驱动土地利用变化的方向与强度。在此基础上 ,以CLUE S模型为框架 ,构建了太仆寺旗土地利用变化时空格局模拟模型 ,通过集成基于太仆寺旗土地利用系统动力学模型获取的土地利用变化及其社会经济驱动因子信息 ,动态模拟了太仆寺旗土地利用变化的时空模式 ,进行了参考模式、生态模式与经济模式下的情景分析。

关键词: 土地利用, 时空格局, CLUE-S模型, 情景分析, 农牧交错带, 太仆寺旗land use, spatio-temporal patterns, CLUE-S model, scenario analyses, farming-pasturing interlocked areas, Taibus County

Abstract:

The dynamic simulation and scenario analyses on the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change, as a hotspot in the research field of land use and land cover change(LUCC), is involved with many driving factors. This paper reclassified the driving factors into three categories (stable controlling factors, seasonal changing factors and socio-economic factors) and revealed the influencing direction and intensity of different factors on land use change by logistic analyses between land use change and its driving factors. Furthermore, regarding CLUE-S model as the modeling framework, this paper designed a dynamic simulation model on the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change in Taibus County. In terms of the running results of the System Dynamic Model of Land Use Change and the change of social and economic factors, this paper realized the dynamic simulation of land use change as well as the scenario analyses of baseline, ecologically-oriented and economically-oriented models in Taibus County. The comparisons of the simulated results of baseline, ecologically-oriented and economically-oriented scenarios disclose the competitions and successions in spatial and temporal scales affected by the integrated effects from all kinds of driving factors. the findings show that the northeastern and northwestern sections covered by unused land at present will become the most sensitive belts for land use change, which further reveal the necessity of macro planning for land use in those areas. In this sense, the research results will serve the decision making on land use planning, the rational exploitation of land resources and the implementation of sustainable development strategy of Taibus County.

Key words: land use, spatio-temporal patterns, CLUE-S model, scenario analyses, farming-pasturing interlocked areas, Taibus County