地理研究 ›› 2005, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 206-212.doi: 10.11821/yj2005020006

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

大渡河上游地区土地利用动态模拟分析

摆万奇, 张永民, 阎建忠, 张镱锂   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2004-07-28 修回日期:2004-11-19 出版日期:2005-04-15 发布日期:2005-04-15
  • 作者简介:摆万奇(1963-).男.河南南阳人.博士.副研究员主要从事土地利用/土地覆被变化研究.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(30270256)中国科学院知识创新与前沿领域项目(KZCX3- SW-339,V36800)共同资助

Simulation of land use dynamics in the upper reaches of the Dadu river

BAI Wan-qi, ZHANG Yong-min, YAN Jian-zhong, ZHANG Yi-li   

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2004-07-28 Revised:2004-11-19 Online:2005-04-15 Published:2005-04-15

摘要:

基于1967、1987和2000年三期遥感数据和1:25万数字高程模型,通过Logistic逐步回归分析,在地形、海拔、水系、道路交通、城镇和居民点分布等多种自然地理和社会经济因素中,筛选出不同时期对大渡河上游地区主要土地利用类型空间分布及其变化具有决定作用的驱动因子,并生成相应的土地利用空间分布概率适宜图,然后采用CLUE-S模型,模拟分析了1987年和2000年两个时点上金川、壤塘和马尔康三县18665 km2范围内的土地利用状况。用当年的现状图检验对比的结果表明,模拟取得了较为理想的结果,Kappa值分别达到0.86和0.89。在此基础上,针对三种政策情景,应用相同模型模拟预测了研究地区2010年时的土地利用时空变化。

关键词: 大渡河上游地区, 土地利用变化, CLUE-S模型

Abstract:

Based on remote sensing imageries of 1967,1987 and 2000, and a digital elevation model with a scale of 1:250000, the key forces driving land use change and controlling land use pattern in the upper reaches of the Dadu river are found out from such biophysical and socioeconomic factors as terrain, elevation, roads, water system, urban and rural residential areas, and then the probability maps for each land use type are created by using Logistic stepwise regression, of which the goodness of fit is evaluated for all equations with the ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) method. In this study, CLUE-S model which has the capability of modeling changes in quantity and location simultaneously, is applied to simulate temporal and spatial changes in land use from 1967 to 1987 and from 1987 to 2000 for an area of 18665 km2 which covers the counties of Rangtang, Jinchuan and Barkam. Comparisons for validation between simulated land use maps and actual land use maps of 1987 and 2000 find that Kappa index reaches to 0. 86 and 0. 89 respectively, indicating a successful simulation. For a better understanding of the future land use changes in the region, the same model is further put into application to predict spatial distribution of land use changes in 2010 for three scenarios associating with current governmental policy of "grain to green". The results of scenario analysis demonstrate that CLUE-S model can play key roles in land use planning and ecological construction, and is also a key part of decision-support system. In the scenario analysis, the changes in quantity are specified on purpose, and thus the simulation is focused on land use changes in location. This is because land use and cover changes in the upper reaches of the Dadu river are mainly driven by policies, especially for forest land and cultivated land, and changes in area are usually determined by government. Therefore, such an application of CLUE-S model is more suitable to regions characterized by policy-driven land use change, in which once the changes in quantity, such as areas of forest cutting, afforestation, grazing-forbidden, or planned reserves, are specified, then their changes in locations can be predicted with the same model. Furthermore, the spatial resolution of modeling can reach to a level of single grid cell.

Key words: upper reaches of the Dadu river, land use change, CLUE-S model