关键词: 溢出, 经济增长, 中国

Abstract:

Nowadays, in an open economic system, due to the increasing integration process in capital, financial and product markets, economic interaction across regions is becoming more and more important. The economic growth of one region is not just decided by its endogenous factors as before, but increasingly affected by its surrounding regions. Economists call this influence as "spillover". It is the mutual spillover of regions that brings the economic development of whole China. So, to know the spillover will obviously do great help to understand the economic developing question of China and to make effective regional economic policy. In fact, many scholars have conducted researches on this topic. For example, Mckibbin established Mundell-Fleming model between two countries; Douver set up GDP-spillovers models on multi-countries; and Conley advanced a complete framework to analyse spillovers based on all these ideas. In this paper, according to the new growth theory and the spatial interactions, we calculate the cross-province spillovers in China with the ameliorated statistical analysis model of the regional spillovers presented by Conley and Ligon(2003). The results indicate that: Most of the cross-province spillovers in China are positive, and those in the western part of China are negative except Yunnan and Xinjiang. Shanghai has the highest level of spillovers, so we call Shanghai as the economic center of China. Hubei province is key in regional spillover, hence developing Hubei economy can promote economic development in central and western China. As a result, we suggest that it is an important stratagem to promote the integrated development of Western and Eastern economy. Further we also think that an effective measure to revitalize Northeast China's economy is to offer some preferential policies which were given to Xinjiang now to Northeast China.

Key words: spillovers, economic growth, China