地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2005, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (5): 732-740.doi: 10.11821/yj2005050010

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

张掖地区水资源承载力多目标情景决策

朱一中1, 夏军2, 王纲胜2,3   

  1. 1. 华南理工大学政治与公共管理学院, 广州 510641;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    3. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039
  • 收稿日期:2004-11-08 修回日期:2005-03-26 发布日期:2011-01-27
  • 作者简介:朱一中(1969-), 女, 湖南人, 博士。研究方向为资源规划与管理。联系电话: 020-87110308;E-mail: zhuyizhong@yeah.net
  • 基金资助:

    中科院知识创新工程项目(CX10G-E01-08/KZCX1-10-03); 国家自然科学基金项目(50279049)

Assessment of water resources carrying-capacity with multi-criteria scenario analysis method: a case study in Zhangye region

ZHU Yi-zhong1, XIA Jun2, WANG Gang-sheng2,3   

  1. 1. School of Politics and Public Administration, South China Univer sity of Technology, Guang zhou 510641, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Graduate School of the Chinece Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
  • Received:2004-11-08 Revised:2005-03-26 Published:2011-01-27

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摘要： 本文以黑河流域中游张掖地区为例, 基于水-生态环境-社会经济耦合系统的原理建立了水资源承载力的动态整合模型-投入产出多目标情景决策分析模型, 对开放系统环境下的水资源承载力及与之相关的土地资源开发利用、虚拟水贸易与社会经济问题进行了深入分析, 就产业结构调整、人口和城市化发展、节水技术进步、生态环境保护、分水、虚拟水战略等政策情景对水资源承载力的影响进行了定量分析评价。

关键词: 水资源承载力, 投入产出, 多目标, 情景分析, 张掖地区

Abstract: In order to ident ify the water resources security and investigate the way for sustainable development of water resources, a new concept of water resources carrying capac-ity (WRCC) has been widely studied in the regional sustainable development during the past decades. Asacase study, the methods of WRCC has been invest igated for Zhangy eregion, located in the middle Heihe river basin. Adynamic and integ rated model of WRCC waterr esources carrying capaeity is established in the frame of mult-icriteria analysis on the basis of the major sectoral models including the extended input-out model, the assessment model of virtual water and the comprehensive evaluation model of WRCC, which provide an integrated frame for the study of water resources development, land use, virtual watert rade and so cio-economic development. The WRCC in different scenarios is discussed and the influence of some important policy factors on WRCC is evaluated including the adjustment of industrial factor, improvement of water-saving technology, implementation of "water allocation" scheme, virtual water strategy, etc. The study indicated that the WRCC of Zhangye still has considerable potent ialities for sustaining the economic development with an annual rate of about 7% of GDP grow th and the natural growth of the population at "Comparatively Well off" living standard of the main agricultural products in 20 years premised with the implementation of "wateral location" scheme and the necessary environmental protection.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, input-output, multi-criteria, scenario analysis, the Zhangye region