地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2006, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (3): 378-387.doi: 10.11821/yj2006030002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

1956-2000年中国潜在蒸散量变化趋势

高歌1,2, 陈德亮1,2, 任国玉1, 陈峪1, 廖要明1   

  1. 1. 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室国家气候中心,北京100081;
    2. Regional Climate Group,Earth Sciences Centre,Gothenburg University,Gothenburg,Sweden
  • 收稿日期:2005-07-24 修回日期:2005-02-05 出版日期:2006-06-15 发布日期:2006-06-15
  • 作者简介:高歌(1972-),女,高级工程师。主要从事气候影响评价工作。E-mail:gaoge99@263.net
  • 基金资助:

    全国水资源综合规划专题研究“气候变化对中国水资源情势影响综合分析”子专题“我国十大水文流域近50年气候状况”;国家“十五”科技攻关项目(2001BA611B);Sida和STINT项目的联合资助

Trend of potential evapotranspiration over China during 1956 to 2000

GAO Ge1,2, CHEN De-liang1,2, REN Guo-yu1, CHEN Yu1, LIAO Yao-ming1   

  1. 1. Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;
    2. Regional Climate Group,Earth Sciences Centre,Gothenburg University,Gothenburg,Sweden
  • Received:2005-07-24 Revised:2005-02-05 Online:2006-06-15 Published:2006-06-15

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摘要： 利用1956-2000年全国580个气象站的逐月气候资料,采用FAO推荐的彭曼-孟蒂斯公式计算潜在蒸散量,对中国及十大流域这45年的潜在蒸散量时空分布特征和变化趋势进行了分析,并采用偏相关分析方法,对造成潜在蒸散量变化的主要气候影响因子进行了探讨。结果表明:45年中除松花江流域外,全国绝大多数流域的年和四季的潜在蒸散量均呈现减少趋势,南方各流域（西南诸河流域除外）年和夏季潜在蒸散量减少趋势尤其明显。1980-2000年和1956-1979年两时段多年平均年潜在蒸散量差值表明,我国大部地区1980-2000年时段较前一时段减少,山东半岛、黄河和长江源区、西南诸河的中西部以及宁夏等地则增多。分析还表明,全国及大多数流域的年和四季潜在蒸散量与日照时数、风速、相对湿度等要素关系密切,但这45年日照时数和/或风速的明显减少可能是导致大多数地区潜在蒸散量减少的主要原因。

关键词: 中国, 潜在蒸散量, 彭曼-孟蒂斯公式, 变化趋势

Abstract: This study aims at providing a climatological reference of potential evapotranspiration for the second comprehensive assessment of water resources and water resource planning of China.Based on the climatic data from 580 stations throughout the country during 1956 and 2000,potential evapotranspirations are calculated using the Penman-Monteith Method recommended by FAO.The spatial and temporal distributions of the potential evapotranspiration over China and the temporal trends of the regional averages for 10 major river basins and whole country are analyzed.Through a partial correlation analysis,the major climate factors which affect the temporal change of the potential evapotranspiration are also analyzed.Major results are as follows: 1) The seasonal and annual potential evapotranspiration for China as a whole and for most of the basins show declining tendencies during the past 45 years;for the Songhua River Basin there appears a slightly increasing trend.2) Consequently,the annual potential evapotranspirations averaged over 1980-2000 are lower than those for the first water resources assessment period(1956-1979) in most parts of China.Exceptions are found in some areas of Shandong Peninsula,river basins in central and western parts of Southwest China,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as well as source regions of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River,which may have brought about disadvantages to the exploitation and utilization of water resources.(3) Generally),sunshine duration,wind speed and relative humidity have greater impact on the potential evapotranspiration than temperature.Decline tendencies of sunshine duration and/or wind speed at the same period appear to be the major causes for the negative trend of the potential evapotranspiration in most areas.

Key words: potential evapotranspiration, Penman-Monteith formula, trend, China