• 城市与乡村 •

### 渔子溪流域水文过程影响因素的特征时间尺度分析

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
• 收稿日期:2006-07-08 修回日期:2006-11-29 出版日期:2007-03-25 发布日期:2007-03-25
• 作者简介:冉圣宏(1969-),男,博士,副研究员。主要从事土地利用变化、环境系统演化研究。 E-mail:ransh@igsnrr.ac.cn
• 基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目"典型脆弱生态区演化的多尺度模拟(40301052)"和中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所知识创新工程领域前沿项目"生态地理模型的尺度转换及其不确定性分析(CXIOG-A05-04)"资助。

### Time scale analysis on the factors ofhydrological process in Yuzixi catchment

RAN Sheng-hong, LI Xiu-bin, LU Chang-he

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
• Received:2006-07-08 Revised:2006-11-29 Online:2007-03-25 Published:2007-03-25
• Supported by:

国家自然科学基金项目"典型脆弱生态区演化的多尺度模拟(40301052)"和中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所知识创新工程领域前沿项目"生态地理模型的尺度转换及其不确定性分析(CXIOG-A05-04)"资助。

Abstract: Based on remote sensing images in three different years (1986, 1994 and 2002), patch-dynamics model is used to simulate the annual land use/cover change (LUCC) from 1986 to 2004 in Yuzixi catchment. Using the modeling results of LUCC, the linear regression model and multivariate nonlinear regression model are employed to analyze the relationship between runoff, rainfall and LUCC at different time scales. The results show that: (1) The correlation coefficients between rainfall and runoff at different time scales are significantly different. The coefficient at monthly scale is the largest, which is 0.807. The coefficient at daily scale is the smallest (0.311). The results also show that, at daily scale, the time lag of rainfall and runoff has to be taken into account. (2) The results of partial correlation analysis show that, at different time scales, LUCC has significant impacts on the relationship between rainfall and runoff. At yearly scale, the impact of rainfall on runoff is larger than that of temperature on runoff, while the results at monthly scale are the reverse. The relationships between runoff and LUCC in Yuzixi catchment at different time scales are also different. Only at monthly scale, the significance of partial correlation analysis is acceptable. (3) At different time scales, the modeling accuracies of multivariate nonlinear regression analysis are higher than that of linear regression analysis. The nonlinear characteristics of different factors at different time scales are different. For example, the nonlinear index of rainfall at monthly scale is the largest (8.3) and the nonlinear index at daily scale is the smallest (0.4) (runoff is the dependent variable). The nonlinear index of temperature is 2.2 at month scale and the nonlinear index is 1.6 at daily scale. The nonlinear index of resident area is 0.725 at monthly scale and the nonlinear index is 1.01 at daily scale.