地理研究 ›› 2007, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (3): 569-576.doi: 10.11821/yj2007030018

• 城市与乡村 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Weibull函数和Gamma函数的环境污染与经济增长的关系

宋 涛1,2, 郑挺国3, 佟连军1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春 130012;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049;
    3. 吉林大学数量经济研究中心,长春 130012
  • 收稿日期:2006-12-09 修回日期:2007-03-06 出版日期:2007-05-25 发布日期:2007-05-25
  • 作者简介:宋涛(1978-),女,山东省乳山市人,博士研究生。主要从事环境经济和区域经济等方面的研究。E-mail :songtao@neigae.ac.cn 通讯作者 : 佟连军,研究员,博士生导师。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(40571041)

Study on the relationship between economic growth andenvironmental pollution based on the Weibull andGamma specifications

SONG Tao1,2, ZHENG Ting-guo3, TONG Lian-jun1,2   

  1. 1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China;
    2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. Quantitative Research Center of Economics, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
  • Received:2006-12-09 Revised:2007-03-06 Online:2007-05-25 Published:2007-05-25
  • Supported by:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(40571041)

摘要: 环境库兹涅茨曲线是研究环境污染与经济增长之间关系的有效工具。传统的环境库兹涅茨曲线研究大多采用线性模型或对数线性模型,其在采用模型描述关系的问题上存在一定的不足。为克服这些不足,本文采用Weibull函数和Gamma函数形式的面板数据模型对中国29个省区1989~2005年四种环境污染指标人均排放量与人均收入之间的关系予以研究。结果表明Weibull函数和Gamma函数的面板数据模型拟合效果较好,且参数具有较好的解释能力;人均废水和人均SO2都随人均收入增加先上升后减少,在25000元附近出现结构转变点,而人均固体废弃物和人均废气随人均收入增加则呈现单调增加的变化趋势,没有出现结构转变点。

关键词: 环境库兹涅茨曲线, 面板数据, Weibull函数, Gamma函数

Abstract: In the past twenty years, the Environmental Kuznets Curve has been regarded as one of the most powerful tools in studying the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution. Conventional studies usually use the linear model or the log-linear model to examine the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. However, from analytical viewpoint and empirical behavior, the performance of the linear model or the log-linear model is suspected for their strict restrictions, such as linearity, nonnegative property, and symmetry. Consequently, conventional linear methods for the Environmental Kuznets Curve studies can not be a fine econometric tool. With a view to the above shortcomings in describing the Environmental Kuznets Curve with the linear model and the log-linear model, this paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in China, using panel data models with the Weibull specification and the Gamma specification, where all the three parameters are used to describe the "shape", "scale" and "shift" of the curves, respectively. In this study, we select per capita waste water emission, per capita waste gas emission and per capita solid wastes generated as the environmental indexes, and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) as the income index with the 29 provincial data over the period from 1989 to 2005. The results show that panel data models with the Weibull specification and the Gamma specification are both simulated better than that with the log-linear model, and their parameters have good explanatory capability. It is also suggested that with the rise of per capita income, per capita waste water emission in China first increases and then decreases, appearing a turning point around 25 000 yuan, while per capita solid wastes generated and per capita waste gas emission take on monotonously increasing relationships which have quite high income turning points.

Key words: Environmental Kuznets Curve, panel data, Weibull function, Gamma function