关键词: 草原火灾, 风险评价, 草原火灾风险指数, 吉林省西部

Abstract: With the development of disaster research and economy, disaster risk assessment has become a new research area, which will help decision makers to choose optimal technical policies to manage disaster and to set up disaster mitigation strategies. As one of the important natural disasters, the grassland disaster has greatly influenced the development of stockbreeding. So it is necessary to research on grassland fire risk. The grassland in the western Jilin province is an important one in China, which belongs to Songnen grassland in Northeast China, and is also a region susceptible to fire. According to the statistics, the fire disaster in the grassland in the western Jilin province occurred 142 times and affected an area of 7095.5ha during the period 2001-2004, thus seriously threatening and restricting sustainable stockbreeding development in the region. In terms of natural disaster generating mechanism and risk analysis formula, the grassland fire disaster risk index (GFDRI) is set up based on the analysis of grassland fire disaster, exposure, vulnerability and emergency response and recovery ability by using linear weighting model, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grassland disaster risk evaluation model. The risk values of grassland fire disaster are calculated respectively in the western Jilin province. The study area was divided into four risk regions, namely, extremely heavy, heavy, moderate and light.The results are proved to be higher reliable.This study is can provide reference and guidance for grassland fire disaster insurance, managing grassland fire disaster and developing strategies to mitigate grassland fire disaster and reduce losses from it. Because grassland fire disaster was influenced by many factors, the index such as vegetation and terrain should be taken into account when the study is carryied out in other place where the terrain changes sharply and the vegetation varies. At the same time, the index value should be changed correspondingly. In the further research the spatial data should be applied to describe the distribution and variety of grassland fire risk.

Key words: grassland fire disaster, risk assessment, GFDRI, western Jilin Province