广州市人口老龄化的空间分布及趋势

doi:10.11821/yj2007050021

地理研究 ›› 2007, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 1043-1054.doi: 10.11821/yj2007050021

广州市人口老龄化的空间分布及趋势

林琳¹, 马飞²

1. 中山大学城市与区域规划系, 广州510275;
2. 广州中地行投资咨询有限公司, 广州510070

收稿日期:2007-03-06 修回日期:2007-07-12 出版日期:2007-09-25 发布日期:2007-09-25
作者简介:林琳(1964-),女,广东中山人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师。从事人口老龄化与城市发展、城市与区域规划等方面的研究。E-mail:eeslinl@mail.sysu.edu.cn,zsu_plan@126.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金研究资助项目(40571053)

Spatial distribution and trends of the aging of population in Guangzhou

LIN Lin¹, MA Fei²

1. School of Geography Sciences and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275,China;
2. China Land Investment &|Consultant CO.LTD.|Guangzhou 510070,China

Received:2007-03-06 Revised:2007-07-12 Online:2007-09-25 Published:2007-09-25
Supported by:
国家自然科学基金研究资助项目(40571053)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用4个代表年份的数据,对广州市10区2市(县级)进行分析。选取6项人口老龄化指标,利用模糊聚类分析方法,得出广州市人口老龄化的空间分布呈三个圈层:中心区、内缘区和外缘区,其人口老龄化程度分别表现为老年型初期、老年型中期和老年型后期。利用GIS空间自相关模型进行分析预测,得出广州市不同圈层人口老龄化集聚扩散趋势,中心区呈扩散趋势,外缘区呈集聚趋势,内缘区介于两者之间。政策、经济、社会、文化等对人口老龄化产生重要影响,并通过人口的自然增长和人口迁移变化表现出来,不同圈层间人口迁移的快速变化,是广州市人口老龄化空间差异及变化的主要原因。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 空间分布, 模糊聚类分析, 趋势, 空间自相关

Abstract: The appearance of the aging phenomenon is an inevitable result in the development of society. The aging seriously influences urban economy, society and culture, especially spatial configuration of a city. Under such a situation, the analyses and studies on the aging of population are very prevalent.This paper studies the spatial distribution and trend with Metric-geography, GIS and sociology, and it also tries to explain them from dynamic aspect and static aspect. First of all, consulting the universal standard which weighs the degrees in aging of population, this paper selects six indexes about aging of population, and then calculates and analyses the spatial characteristics of aging phenomenon in Guangzhou through fuzzy classifying analytical method. After analyzing the spatial structure of aging in Guangzhou, the circinal characteristics of the aging of population from push modes, and aging degrees are obtained.Through fuzzy clustering analysis and selecting typical indexes, the paper studies ten city zones and two city towns, then gets the aging spatial structure which has circularity differential characteristic.As a whole, three types of the aging spatial structure can be classified, which are Elder-Late stage,including Yuexiu, Dongshan, Liwan, Haizhu and Fangcun; Elder-Midterm stage, including Baiyun, Panyu, Tianhe and Huangpu; and Elder-Initial stage, including Zengcheng, Conghua and Huadu. Then, with the Geographic Information System Software(Arc GIS) and Geodata Analysis Software(Geo DA), this paper analyzes the reason on the circularity structure of the aging of population, explains the circularity structure with the clustered-disperse effect of the aging, and then analyzes the clustered-disperse trend.Specifically, the central zone has dispersed trend, the interspace zone has clustered trend, and the trend in-between the dispersed and the clustered is the marginal zone. Based on the analysis, three clustered-dispersed types, such as central dispersed zone, marginal clustered zone, and interspace clustered and dispersed zone are identified. The factors, such as policy, economy, society, culture,etc, affect the aging of population in Guangzhou, which are reflected in the natural growth of population and the migration of population. The reason for the difference in spatial distribution is due to the rapid change of the rate of migration between different circularities.

Key words: aging of population, spatial distribution, fuzzy classifying analytical method, trend, spatial autocorrelation analysis

林琳, 马飞. 广州市人口老龄化的空间分布及趋势[J]. 地理研究, 2007, 26(5): 1043-1054.

LIN Lin, MA Fei. Spatial distribution and trends of the aging of population in Guangzhou[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2007, 26(5): 1043-1054.

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广州市人口老龄化的空间分布及趋势

Spatial distribution and trends of the aging of population in Guangzhou

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