关键词: 耕地变化, GDP增长, 经验模态分解, 动力学模型, 山东省

Abstract:

Cultivated land, a type of non-renewable resources, has its quantity changes often presented several phases with the development of industrialization and urbanization.It is the rapid economic growth and accelerating urbanization process in China that make the limited cultivated land resources to pay a high price for. As a major agricultural province in China, the reduction of cultivated land resources in Shandong Province has become an unavoidable loss of cost for the rapid economic growth phase in the Province and the cultivated trends, which intensified the contradiction of the supply and demand between people, and seriously affected sustainable development of agriculture in Shandong. Therefore, we must correctly understand the changes of cultivated land area and development trends,and correctly analyze and grasp the primary driving factors and mechanisms for the changes of the cultivated land area. It is of great significance to the proper handling of the relations between the changes of cultivated land area and economic construction. This issue uses the EMD method for the first time, which carries on the comparative analysis of the relations of economic growth and the changes of cultivated land resources of Shandong Province, attempting to find out the interactive relations of them, and to conserve the cultivated land resources of Shandong Province. The findings indicate that the undulating cycles of GDP growth in Shandong are 13, 23, 37and 55 years; the cycles of its cultivated land changes are 9, 13, 37 and 55 years. It has been fully proven that the growth of GDP drives the changes of cultivated land in Shandong. Around the year 2015, the price of cultivated land loss for economic growth in the Province will be greatly reduced, the amount of cultivated land will be maintained at a relatively stable level, and the economic growth and the decrease of cultivated land will enter a good developmental stage. Finally, a dynamic model with a cycle in this issue is made for the first time, and the changes of the cultivated land area in the next 20 years in Shandong Province are forecasted.

Key words: change of cultivated land, GDP increase, EMD, dynamics model, Shandong Province