气候变化风险的新型分类

doi:10.11821/yj2008040005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

风险分类是对气候变化风险进行系统风险评估和管理的前提和基础。本文首先按部门和领域识别了主要的气候变化风险,然后采用国际风险管理理事会(International Risk Governance Council, IRGC)的新型风险分类体系(简单风险、复杂风险、不确定风险和模糊风险)进行分类:提出以"不确定性"作为分类依据;把IPCC第四次评估报告中描述不确定性的主要术语——"信度"和"可能性"作为分类特征参数,分别构建了四类风险的模糊隶属函数,根据最大隶属度原则从定量角度对气候变化风险进行分类;同时利用IPCC的两个定性指标"达成一致的程度和证据量"对定量分类方法进行补充,初步建立了气候变化风险的分类方法体系。获得的气候变化风险分类的初步结果,可以为风险管理机构选择不同类别的评估和管理方法进行风险研究提供科学依据。

关键词: 气候变化, 风险分类, 不确定性

Abstract:

Climate change risk can be defined as the possibility of impacts on natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems resulted from or aggravated by climate change, particularly the negative aspects. Many disciplines, particularly Geography have been heavily involved in the scientific assessment of climate change and its potential social and environment impacts. However, it still needs to be studied further using more systematic methods of risk assessment and management, while appropriate risk categorization is their prerequisite and foundation. In this paper, we first identify the main risks induced from climate change by sectors, in which not only the traditional abrupt risks are included, but some "low-probability" events and creeping hazards are also contained. And then, these risks are categorized into four risk categories applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Ortwin Renn in a framework of IRGC: first, we propose that uncertainty of the risk-related knowledge and information could be treated as the classifying criteria. Then, we use IPCC's quantitative terms of expressing uncertainties-confidence' and likelihood' as the feature parameters to construct membership function for the four categories respectively, and according to the maximum principle we identify the type that a certain risk should belong to. Given that not all impacts are assigned with confidence' and likelihood' in IPCC report, level of agreement & amount of evidence' is applied to form a qualitative classification method as a supplement. Thus a preliminary semi-quantitative risk categorization system for climate change has been established. Finally, the categorization results of climate change risks have been acquired. Thus, we can assess and manage climate change risks with different approaches and strategies, which will improve the efficiency of risk management, enhance the scientific nature in risk assessment and lay a good foundation for the integrated risk governance of climate change risks.

Key words: climate change, risk classification, uncertainty

张月鸿, 吴绍洪, 戴尔阜, 尹云鹤, 刘登伟. 气候变化风险的新型分类[J]. 地理研究, 2008, 27(4): 763-774.

ZHANG Yue-hong, WU Shao-hong, DAI Er-fu, YIN Yun-he, LIU Deng-wei. New classification method of climate change risks[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2008, 27(4): 763-774.

参考文献

[1] IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis-Working Group I Contribution to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. London: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

[2] IPCC. Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change, working group Ⅱ report. London: Cambridge University Press, 1995.

[3] IPCC. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of Climate Change, working group Ⅱ report. London: Cambridge University Press, 2001.

[4] IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability- Working Group II Contribution to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. London: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

[5] National Research Council. Rediscovering Geography: New Relevance for Science and Society. Washington, D C: National Academy Press, 1997.

[6] Demeritt D. The construction of global warming and the politics of science. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2001, 91(2): 307~337.

[7] Oppenheimer M. Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference: The Role of Science, the Limits of Science. Risk Analysis, 2005, 25(6): 1399~1407.

[8] Patwardhan A, Schneider S H, Semenov S M. Assessing the science to address UNFCCC Article 2: A concept paper relating to cross cutting theme number four. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/cct3.pdf, 2003.

[9] Oppenheimer M, Petsonk A. Article 2 of the UNFCCC: Historical origins, recent interpretations. Climatic Change, 2005, 73: 195~226.

[10] Morgan M G, Florig H K, Michael L D. Categorizing risks for risk ranking. Risk Analysis, 2000, 20(1): 49~58.

[11] Renn O. White paper on risk governance: Towards an integrative approach. White paper No.1 of the International Risk Governance Council. Available at: www.irgc.org, 2005.

[12] Byrd D M, Cothern C R. Introduction to risk analysis: A systematic approach to science-based decision making. Rockville, M D, USA: Government institutes. 2000.

[13] Stirling A. Risk, precaution and science: Towards a more constructive policy debate. European Molecular Biology Organization Reports, 2007,8(4): 309~315.

[14] Risbey J S, Kandlikar M. Expressions of likelihood and confidence in the IPCC uncertainty assessment process. Climatic Change, 2007, 85: 19~31.

[15] Van Aalst M. Mainstreaming climate risk management into development planning. The Global Forum on Sustainable Development (GFSD), OECD, 2004.

[16] Glantz M H. Creeping environmental problems and sustainable development in the Aral Sea Basin. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999.

[17] Roger N J. When do POETS become dangerous? IPCC workshop on describing scientific uncertainties in climate change to support analysis of risk and of options, 2004.

[18] 气候变化国家评估报告编写委员会. 气候变化国家评估报告. 北京: 科学出版社, 2007.

[19] 陈宜瑜,丁永建,佘之祥,等. 中国气候与环境演变评估(Ⅱ): 气候与环境变化的影响与适应、减缓对策. 气候变化研究进展,2005, 1(2): 51~57.

[20] 吴绍洪, 尹云鹤, 赵慧霞, 等. 生态系统对气候变化适应的辨识. 气候变化研究进展, 2005, 1(3): 115~118.

[21] 李克让, 曹明奎, 於琍, 等. 中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估. 地理研究, 2005, 24(5): 653~663.

[22] Obersteiner M, Azar C, Kauppi P, et al. Managing climate risk. Science, 2001, 294(5543): 786~787.

[23] Kleinen T, Petschel-Held G. Integrated assessment of changes in flooding probabilities due to climate change. Climatic Change, 2007, 81: 283~312.

[24] Lenton R. Water and climate variability: Development impacts and coping strategies. Water Science and Technology, 2004, 49: 1~24.

[25] Araújo M B, Whittaker R J, Ladle R J. Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2005, 14: 529~538.

[26] Boisvenue C, Running S W. Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity:Evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Global Change Biology, 2006, 12: 862~882.

[27] Kleypas J A , Buddemeier R W, Archer D, et al. Geochemical consequences of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Science, 1999, 284: 118~120.

[28] Lin Erda, Xiong Wei, Ju Hui, et al. Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO₂ fertilization in China. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 2005, 360: 2149~2154.

[29] Ziska L H. Evaluation of yield loss in field-grown sorghum from a C₃ and C₄ weed as a function of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Weed Science, 2003, 51: 914~918.

[30] Nicholls R J, Tol R S J. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: A global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 2006, 364: 1073~1095.

[31] Webster P J, Holland G J, Curry J A, et al. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 2005, 309: 1844~1846.

[32] McInnes K L, Walsh K J E, Hubbert G D, et al. Impact of sea-level rise and storm surges on a coastal community. Natural Hazards, 2003, 30: 187~207.

[33] Agnew M, Viner D. Potential impact of climate change on international tourism. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 2001, 3: 37~60.

[34] Gomez-Martin B. Weather, climate and tourism: A geographical perspective.Annals of Tourism Research, 2005, 32(3): 571~591.

[35] Morris C J G, Simmonds I. Associations between varying magnitudes of the urban heat island and the synoptic climatology in Melbourne, Australia. International Journal of Climatology, 2000,20(15):1931~1954.

[36] Reiter P, Thomas C J, Atkinson P, et al. Global warming and malaria: A call for accuracy. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2004,4(6):323~324.

[37] Gagnon A S, Bush A B G, Smoyer-Tomic K E. Dengue epidemics and the El Ni o Southern Oscillation.Climate Research, 2001, 19: 35~43.

[38] Hopp M J, Foley J A. Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever cases related to climate variability.Climate Research, 2003, 25: 85~94.

[39] 慈龙骏, 杨晓晖, 陈仲新. 未来气候变化对中国荒漠化的潜在影响. 地学前缘, 2002, 9(2): 287~294.

[40] 田晓瑞, 王明玉, 舒立福. 全球变化背景下的中国林火发生趋势及预防对策. 林火研究, 2003,(3): 32~34.

[41] 马丽萍,陈联寿,徐祥德.全球热带气旋活动与全球气候变化相关特征. 热带气象学报, 2006, 22(2): 147~154.

[42] 周启星. 气候变化对环境与健康影响研究进展. 气象与环境学报, 2006, 22(1): 38~43.

[43] 杨坤, 王显红, 吕山, 等. 气候变暖对中国几种重要媒介传播疾病的影响. 国际医学寄生虫病杂志, 2006, 33(4): 182~187.

[44] OECD.Emerging systemic risks. Final report to the OECD futures project. OECD: Paris, 2003.

[45] Sayers P B, Gouldby B P, Simm J D, et al. Risk, performance and uncertainty in flood and coastal defense:A review, DEFRA/Environment Agency - flood and coastal defense R&D programme, Wallingford, 2002.

[46] Bunting C. Applying the IRGC risk governance framework: What we have learned about risks and about the IRGC framework ESOF, Munich.www.irgc.org, 2006.

[47] Manning M R, Petit M, Easterling D, et al. IPCC workshop on describing scientific uncertainties in climate change to support analysis of risk and of options.http://www.ipcc.ch/, 2004.

[48] IPCC.The guidance notes for lead authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on addressing uncertainties. Geneva,Switzerland: IPCC.http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/uncertaintyguidancenote.pdf, 2005.

[49] Manning M R. The treatment of uncertainties in the fourth IPCC assessment report. Advances in climate change research, 2006, 2 (Suppl.1): 13~21.

[50] 黄崇福, 王家鼎. 模糊信息分析与应用. 北京: 北京师范大学出版社, 1992.

[51] Gary Yohe, Kenneth Strzepek. Adaptation and mitigation as complementary tools for reducing the risk of climate impacts.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.2007, 12: 727~739.