关键词: 中部地区, 粮食生产, 粮食波动, 粮食安全

Abstract:

Central China, including Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan, is the country’s major food production area. This paper analyzes its grain production scales from grain sown area and grain output. By surplus method, it explores fluctuation of grain production and its characteristics with time sequence data of 1978~2006 grain production. First, the fluctuation is a classical one, which fluctuates in the increase and decrease of total grain production, second, it is a short period fluctuation which takes place in 2~3 years, third, except few years, the fluctuation is within 5%. Meanwhile gray interrelated mode is established with gray systematic theory to analyze the influentiing factors of grain comprehensive productive capacity. Irrigation area, grain sown area and disaster stricken area are the major influentiing factors. Based on the characteristics of grain production in Central China, the paper analyzes its influence on China’s grain safety: first, since 1978, Central China’s grain production has been increasing by 2.12% per year; second, Central China’ grain production occupies 30% of average national grain production which has an objective impact on China grain production; third, Central China’s grain production fluctuates to a certain degree but not so much; and fourth, gray interrelated mode indicates irrigation area, grain sown area and disaster stricken area are the major influentiing elements for grain comprehensive productive capacity. Effective regulation and control measures can promote grain production and guarantee China’s grain safety. First of all, the function and status of a commodity grain production base cannot be changed in the central part, and the protection of farmland and agricultural infrastructure should be strengthened; second, stabilizing the current policies and measures, constructing a long-term system to support national grain production, and maintaining and upgrading farmers' initiative; and third, bringing into full play scientific technology and innovation.

Key words: Central China, grain production, grain fluctuation, grain safety