广州SARS流行过程的空间模式与分异特征

doi:10.11821/yj2008050017

地理研究 ›› 2008, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5): 1139-1150.doi: 10.11821/yj2008050017

广州SARS流行过程的空间模式与分异特征

曹志冬^1,2, 王劲峰¹, 高一鸽¹, 韩卫国³, 冯晓磊⁴, 曾光⁵

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101;
2. 中国科学院自动化研究所,北京 100080;
3. Center for Spatial Information Science and System, George Mason University;
4. 河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,石家庄 050016;
5. 中国疾病预防控制中心,北京100050

收稿日期:2007-12-26 修回日期:2008-07-22 出版日期:2008-09-25 发布日期:2008-09-25
作者简介:曹志冬 (1978-),男,湖南益阳人,博士。主要从事GIS空间分析、空间抽样和传染病时空建模方面的研究。Email: caozd@lreis.ac.cn *通讯作者 :王劲峰,研究员,博士生导师。Email:wangjf@lreis.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家863课题(2006AA12Z215,2007AA12Z241);国际科技合作项目(2007DFC20180);国家自然科学基金课题(70571076,40471111);中科院方向性课题(KZCX2-YW-308);国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAK01A13)

Spatial pattern and heterogeneity risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in Guangzhou

CAO Zhi-dong^1,2, WANG Jin-feng¹, GAO Yi-ge¹, HAN Wei-guo³, Feng Xiao-lei⁴, ZENG Guang⁵

1. State Key Laboratory of Resources &|Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences &|Natural Resources Research| CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. Institute of Automation, CAS, Beijing 100080, China;
3. Center for Spatial Information Science and System, George Mason University;
4. Resources and Environment Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050016, China;
5. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050,China

Received:2007-12-26 Revised:2008-07-22 Online:2008-09-25 Published:2008-09-25
Supported by:
国家863课题(2006AA12Z215,2007AA12Z241);国际科技合作项目(2007DFC20180);国家自然科学基金课题(70571076,40471111);中科院方向性课题(KZCX2-YW-308);国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAK01A13)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据广州市SARS感染者的家庭住址信息进行空间化处理,得到了不同SARS感染人群在空间上的分布,并用数据模型定量表达了广州市SARS疫区的传播中心及其置信范围,结合SARS接收医院中心点的分布及其变化规律,对不同感染人群传播中心的异质性及其变化规律进行了分析,结果表明:随着疫情的发展,广州市SARS传播中心具有明显的向SARS接收医院中心点接近的趋势,且变化规律与SARS接收医院中心点的迁移规律大致相同,医院传播对广州市SARS传播过程有重要影响,且经历了由强到弱再到强的变化过程。本文研究有助于更好地了解SARS及其他新型传染病在都市区的空间传播扩散过程,并为公共卫生应急预案提供科学依据。

关键词: 严重急性呼吸系统综合症, 广州SARS流行, 空间模式, 医院传播

Abstract:

Hospital infection has proved to be one of the most important routes of SARS transmission, and nearly a quarter of those infected are medical staff in Guangzhou in South China. However, its potential to control epidemic of SARS is unclear. Detailed records of this epidemic have allowed the development of spatial analysis methods that capture the main features of epidemic spread in space, and the impact of SARS accepting hospitals. SARS epidemic comes from Guangzhou City in South China. SARS epidemic in Guangzhou is a sample to study epidemic's sudden outbreak in urban areas, which can help us to understand which is the risk factor that affects epidemic process and how epidemic spreads. Spatial points are gained according to the family addresses of SARS infectors. Mathematical models are used to express quantitatively the transmission center and confidence interval of epidemic areas. Spatial pattern of different SARS infection groups and their change are analyzed compared with that of SARS accepting hospital weighted with the number of accepted SARS patients. The result shows that there is a clear trend for the transmission center to approach the center of SARS accepting hospital, and their patterns are consistent with that of SARS accepting hospitals. Medical personnel and the other infectors are affected equally by SARS accepting hospitals. SARS accepting hospitals have an impact on the SARS epidemic in Guangzhou, which experiences a strong- weak- strong process. This paper contributes to a better understanding of the spatial spread for SARS and other new infectious diseases in urban areas, and provides a support for public health contingency plans.

Key words: severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS epidemic in Guangzhou, spatial pattern, hospital infection

曹志冬, 王劲峰, 高一鸽, 韩卫国, 冯晓磊, 曾光. 广州SARS流行过程的空间模式与分异特征[J]. 地理研究, 2008, 27(5): 1139-1150.

CAO Zhi-dong, WANG Jin-feng, GAO Yi-ge, HAN Wei-guo, Feng Xiao-lei, ZENG Guang. Spatial pattern and heterogeneity risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in Guangzhou[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2008, 27(5): 1139-1150.

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广州SARS流行过程的空间模式与分异特征

Spatial pattern and heterogeneity risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in Guangzhou

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