地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2008, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5): 1169-1177.doi: 10.11821/yj2008050020

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

东北地区玉米低温冷害气候和经济损失风险分区

马树庆1, 王 琪2, 王春乙3, 霍治国3   

  1. 1. 吉林省气象台,长春 130062;
    2. 吉林省气象科学研究所,长春 130062;
    3. 中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2007-12-06 修回日期:2008-06-10 出版日期:2008-09-25 发布日期:2008-09-25
  • 作者简介:马树庆(1959-),男,辽宁凤城人,研究员。主要从事农业气象和农业生态研究及其相关业务工作。E-mail:jlmasq@yahoo.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家"十·五"科技攻关项目(2004BA509B14)

The risk division on climate and economic loss of maize chilling damage in Northeast China

MA Shu-qing1, WANG Qi2, WANG Chun-yi3, HUO Zhi-guo3   

  1. 1. Meteorological Observatory of Jilin province, Changchun 130062, China;
    2. Institute of Meteorology Science of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062, China;
    3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2007-12-06 Revised:2008-06-10 Online:2008-09-25 Published:2008-09-25
  • Supported by:

    国家"十·五"科技攻关项目(2004BA509B14)

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摘要：

分析了东北地区玉米低温冷害发生的热量条件、发生频率、风险指数和风险概率,用冷害气候风险评价指标将东北地区划分成高、偏高、中等、较低和低风险5个玉米低温冷害气候风险区域。考虑到冷害气候风险和玉米产量和面积比例等农业生产结构因素,建立了玉米低温冷害的气候—灾损综合风险评估模式,并将东北地区划分成高风险、较高风险、中风险、较低风险和低风险5个玉米低温冷害灾损综合风险区域,并指出各区域减缓玉米冷害风险的技术和战略措施。结果表明,东北地区的北部、东部和中部低温冷害灾损风险较大,吉林省西南部和辽宁省大部风险较小。

关键词: 玉米低温冷害, 气候风险, 灾损风险, 区划, 东北地区

Abstract:

The thermal condition, occurring frequency, risk index and climatic risk probability of the maize chilling damage in Northeast China were analyzed, and the synthetic climatic risk index and model were developed. Northeast China was divided into five climatic risk areas(highest, higher, moderate, lower and lowest)using synthetic climatic risk index. The risk evaluation model of climate-economic loss of the chilling damage was developed using synthetic climatic risk index,considering the maize’s output and proportion of planting area.On this basis, Northeast China was divided into five typical damage areas of economic loss risk, including the highest, higher, moderate, lower and lowest one. Then the authors put forward relevant measures to reduce the damage risk in different areas. The difference in damage risk is obvious in different areas. The northern and eastern parts of Northeast China are the highest climatic risk areas, and southwestern Jilin and most parts of Liaoning are the lower ones. The central part of Northeast China, the northern part of Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin are the highest risk areas on economic loss, western Jilin and northeastern Liaoning are moderate, the central and eastern parts of Liaoning are lower, and southern Liaoning is the lowest one even without risk. Though the climate becomes warm, the supply-demand relation of thermal condition of maize production is still tense as a result of the increasing proportions of maize production(especially the late-ripe species). Therefore, the chilling damage risk is still high in most parts of Northeast China, and we should positively control the chilling damage under the condition of climatic change.The main measure to reduce the damage risk firstly is to improve the planting structure, adjust the maize variety proportion in different areas; and secondly is to use the cultivating technique of resisting the damage for promoting the resistibility.

Key words: maize chilling damage, climate risk, economic loss risk, division areas, Northeast China