地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 191-202.doi: 10.11821/yj2009010021

• 经济与区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

京津冀都市圈人口增长特征及其解释

李国平, 陈秀欣   

  1. １.北京大学政府管理学院,北京 100871|２.国土资源部耕地保护司,北京 100812
  • 收稿日期:2008-06-16 修回日期:2008-10-26 发布日期:2010-11-20
  • 作者简介:李国平(1961-),男,黑龙江拜泉县人,教授,博士。专业方向:经济地理、区域经济、城市与区域规划。E-mail:lgp@pku.edu.cn 陈秀欣,女,黑龙江哈尔滨市人,硕士。专业方向:区域经济、城市与区域规划。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40671046);国家社会科学基金(07BJY070);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET06-0022)

Empirical research on influencing factors on population growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

LI Guo-ping, CHEN Xiu-xin   

  1. School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2008-06-16 Revised:2008-10-26 Published:2010-11-20
  • Supported by:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40671046);国家社会科学基金(07BJY070);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET06-0022)

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89 | 13

摘要：

根据1990年和2000年相关资料,对京津冀都市圈人口数量增长和密度增长的特征加以分析,利用人口初始规模、区位条件、经济因素3类变量建立计量回归模型,对都市圈133个区县人口增长及其差异进行解释。计量回归结果发现自然条件和经济因素的共同作用是造成都市圈内人口增长差异的重要原因。一个地区如果平均高程较低,人均GDP增长较快,第三产业发展较好、增长较快,接近中心城市、市场潜力较大,则人口相应增长较快。模型同样推导出,区位条件和经济因素都为影响人口增长的重要因素,但后者的影响作用更大。

关键词: 人口增长, 影响因素, 京津冀都市圈

Abstract:

As a rising metropolitan region, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region has an extremely important strategic position in the regional development pattern of China. During the past several decades, the spatial structure of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region has greatly changed. The research on that can not only help reveal the spatial characteristics of the regional economy, and the trends of their evolution, and determine the regional development stage, but also bear important implications for regional planning. Agglomeration and dispersion of population are the fundamental reasons for the evolution of regional spatial structure. People are the main micro-economic actors, so the authors choose the evolution of the spatial distribution of population as the research focus. This paper analyzes the population growth of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region from 1990 to 2000. By using three classes of variables, this paper studies the influencing factors on the population growth of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region and its disparity. Three main conclusions are as follows: (1) The population grows faster in the southern part of the region than in the northern part. The distribution of population densities shows that the agglomeration of population in the region has become more evident. (2) The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan region has a polycentric spatial structure. There exist two high-density corridors within the region in 1990 (the Beijing-Tianjin corridor, and the Beijing-Baoding-Shijiazhuang corridor), and three (with the Beijing-Tangshan corridor as the newly added one) in 2000. (3) The econometric analysis indicates that the natural conditions and the economic factors have significant impacts on the population growth. The lower elevation values, the faster growth rates of per capita GDP, the faster development of the tertiary industry and the larger market potentials can lead to the faster population growth. The model also shows that although both the natural conditions and the economic factors have important impacts on the population growth, the influences of the latter are much greater.

Key words: population growth, influencing factors, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropoli- tan Region