长江上游全新世特大洪水对西南季风变化的响应

doi:10.11821/yj2009030004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用24次全新世特大洪水序列与川渝地区近两千年的洪灾史料,对长江上游特大洪水事件和气候变化的响应机制进行了分析。从长江上游特大洪水序列与阿拉伯海记录的西南季风气候变化对比分析来看,特大洪水事件与西南季风变化具有很好的响应关系,特大洪水事件多发生于西南季风较弱的阶段,这些阶段以西南季风气候快速变化为特征,是气候剧烈波动期或气候的转型期。与北大西洋、贵州董歌洞石笋所记录的气候变化比较,特大洪水有的与全新世气候突变一致,有的则不一致,可能特大洪水事件更多表现为地方事件。与文献记载的历史洪灾事件相比,长江上游低频高量级的特大洪水事件对西南季风的变化具有更好的响应关系,而高频低量级的洪灾事件具有更高的随机性,由于历史文献记载的洪水量级差异较大,如果将他们笼统地放在一起分析,可能会掩盖洪水事件对气候变化响应机制。

关键词: 特大洪水, 西南季风, 全新世, 长江上游

Abstract: Exploring the relationship between extreme floods in the Upper Changjiang River (UCR) and the southwest (SW) monsoon is of important theoretical and practical significance by means of the floods peak discharge. The climatic background of the extreme floods in the UCR was analyzed in this paper by recurring to 24 extreme Holocene floods and flood disaster data during the last 2000 years in Sichuan-Chongqing area. Summer SW monsoon is the main sources of precipitation in UCR. The flood caused by violent storm is the major flood type in UCR. The extreme floods in the UCR are related to the abnormal enhancement of SW monsoon. The analogism was employed for exploring the response of extreme floods to the Holocene climate change. The Holocene climate change information recorded in North Atlantic Ocean drilling core, Dongge stalagmite, Arabian sea drilling core and other proxies were used for analyzing the subjects. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the series of extreme floods in the UCR and the SW monsoon change during Holocene recorded by the marine core in the Arabian Sea, the extreme floods were greatly consistent with the SW monsoon change. The extreme floods event period during Holocene, characterized by the rapid climate change, were mostly the stage of strong climatic fluctuation or the climatic transition period. In comparison of the extreme floods to the climate change recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean, all the extreme flood periods are not consistent with the rapid climate change, which is similar to the scenario of the stalagmite in Dongge Cave in Guizhou Province. It is indicated that the flood event affected by the hydrologic-meteorologic process tended to be a local event. Compared with the flood disasters recorded in historical documents, the extreme floods with greater peak discharge and low frequency responded to the climate change very well, whereas the floods with small peak discharge and low frequency were more random. There were great differences in magnitude of historical floods recorded in documents. Therefore we should do analyses to distinguish these events based on the data rather than mix them up. The latter may cover up the true mechanism of the extreme floods and their responses to the climate change.

Key words: extreme floods, southwest monsoon, Holocene, the Upper Changjiang River

葛兆帅. 长江上游全新世特大洪水对西南季风变化的响应[J]. 地理研究, 2009, 28(3): 592-600.

GE Zhao-shuai. The response of Holocene extreme floods in the Upper Changjiang River to changes of southwest monsoon[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2009, 28(3): 592-600.

参考文献

[1] 郑斯中.我国历史时期冷暖年代的干旱型.地理研究,1983,2(4):32~40.

[2] 姚鲁峰.全新世以来永定河洪水的发生规律.地理研究,1991,10(3):59~67.

[3] Baker V R.A bright future for old flows: origins,status and future of paleoflood hydrology.In Proceedings of the PHEFRA International Workshop,2002,13~18.

[4] Benito G,Sope a A,Sánchez-Moya Y,et al.Palaeoflood record of the Tagus River (Central Spain) during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene.Quaternary Science Reviews.2003,22(15~17): 1737~1756.

[5] Yang Dayuan,Yu Ge,Xie Yuebo,et al.Sedimentary records of large Holocene floods from the middle reaches of the Yellow River,China.Geomorphology,2000, 33(1~2):73~88.

[6] 朱诚,于世永,史威,等.南京江北地区全新世沉积与古洪水研究,地理研究,1997,16(4):41~48.

[7] 杨煜达,满志敏,郑景云. 1711~1911年昆明雨季降水的分级重建与初步研究.地理研究,2006,25(6):1041~1049.

[8] Hayden B P.Flood climates.In:Baker V R,Kochel R C,Patton P C.Flood Geomorphology.New York,Wiley,1988,13~26.

[9] Knox J C.Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change.Quaternary Science Reviews,2000,19(1~5):439~457.

[10] Ely L L,Enzel Z,Baker V R,et al.A 5000-year record of extreme floods and climate change in the southwestern United states.Science,1993,262:410~412.

[11] Ely L L.Response of extreme floods in the southwestern United States to climatic variations in the late Holocene. Geomorphology,1997,19(3~4):175~201.

[12] 水利部长江水利委员会.长江流域水旱灾害.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.15.

[13] 长江水利委员会.三峡工程水文研究.武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,1997.11~120.

[14] 胡明思,骆承政主编.中国历史大洪水(下卷).中国书店出版,1988.151~203.

[15] 葛兆帅,杨达源,李徐生,等.晚更新世以来长江上游古洪水记录.第四纪研究,2004,13(2):555~560.

[16] Paula J R,Mike G L B,Edouard B, et al.INTCAL04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26cal.kyr.B.P. Radiocarbon,2004,46(3):1029~1058.

[17] 长江水利委员会,重庆市文化局,重庆市博物馆,编.四川两千年洪灾史料汇编.北京:文物出版社,1993.8~45.

[18] 四川自然资源研究所.1981年四川暴雨洪灾.成都:四川科学技术出版社,1984.36~40.

[19] 水利部水文局,水利部长江水利委员会水文局.1998年长江暴雨洪水.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.39~40.

[20] Bond G,Kromer B,Beer J.Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene.Science,2001,294:2130~2136.

[21] Yongjin Wang,Hai Cheng R. Lawrence Edwards,et al.the Holocene Asian monsoon: links to solar changes and North Atlantic Climate.Science,2005,308:854~856.

[22] Gupta A K, Anderson D M, Overpeck J T.Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean.Nature,2003,421:354~356.

[23] 施雅风,孔昭宸,王苏民,等.中国全新世大暖期鼎盛阶段的气候与环境.中国科学(B),1993,23(8):865~873.

[24] Selvaraj K,C T A Chen,J Y Lou.Holocene East Asian monsoon variability: links to solar and tropical Pacific forcing.Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34:L01703,doi:10.1029/2006GL028155.

[25] 何元庆,姚檀栋,沈永平, 等.冰芯与其它记录所揭示的中国全新世大暖期变化特征.冰川冻土,2003,25(1):11~18.

[26] 周静,王苏民,吕静.洱海地区一万多年以来气候环境演化的湖泊沉积记录.湖泊科学,2003,15(2):104~111.

[27] 于学峰,周卫健,Lars G. Franzen,等.青藏高原东部全新世冬夏季风变化的高分辨率泥炭记录.中国科学(D),2006,36 (2): 182~187.

[28] Cai Yanjun,Zhang Meiliang,Peng Zicheng,et al.The δ¹⁸O variation of a stalagmite from Qixing Cave,Guizhou Province and indicated climate change during t he Holocene. Chinese Science Bulletin,2001,46 (22):1904~1908.

[29] 吴江滢,汪永进,孔兴功.贵州白骨洞石笋记录的全新世季风气候演化与突变.海洋地质与第四纪地质,2006,26(5):55~60.

[30] 吴艳宏,Andreas Lücke,Bernd Wünnemann,等.青藏高原中部全新世气候变化的湖泊沉积地球化学记录.中国科学(D),2007,37(9):1185~1191.

[31] 吴艳宏,王苏民,侯新花.青藏高原中部错鄂全新世湖泊沉积物年代学研究.中国科学(D),2006,36(8):713~722.

[32] 邵晓华,汪永进,程海, 等.全新世季风气候演化与干旱事件的湖北神农架石笋记录.科学通报,2006,51(1):80~86.

[33] 夏正楷,王赞红,赵青春.我国中原地区3500 aBP前后的异常洪水事件及其气候背景.中国科学(D),2003,33(9):881~888.

[34] 孙建中,赵景波.黄土高原第四纪.北京:科学出版社,1991.201~205.

[35] 顾兆炎,刘嘉麒,袁宝印,等.12000年青藏高原季风变化——色林错沉积物地球化学证据.科学通报,1993,38(1):61~64.

[36] 施雅风,姚檀栋,杨保.近2000a古里雅冰芯10a尺度的气候变化及其与中国东部文献记录的比较.中国科学(D),1999,29(S1):79~86.

[37] 竺可桢.中国近五千年来气候变迁初步研究.见:竺可桢.竺可桢文集.北京:科学出版社,1979.475~498.

[38] 张丕远.中国历史气候变化.济南:山东科技出版社,1996.435~436.

[39] 张丕远,王铮,张啸雷,等.中国近两千年来气候演变的阶段性.中国科学(B),1994,24(9):998~1008.

[40] Ge Quansheng,Zheng Jingyun,Fang Xiuqi,et al.Winter half-year temperature reconstructure for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River,China,during the past 2000 years.The Holocene,2003,13(6):933~940.

[41] 张德二, 刘传志,江剑民.中国东部6区域近1000年干湿序列重建和气候跃变分析.第四纪研究,1997,6(1):1~11.

[42] 杨保,康兴成,施雅风.近2000年都兰树轮10年尺度的气候变化及其与中国其它地区温度代用资料的比较.地理科学,2000,20(5):397~402.

[43] 吴祥定,林振耀.青藏高原近二千年来气候变迁初步探讨.中央气象科学院天气气候研究所.全国气候变化学术讨论会文集.北京:科学出版社,1981.18~25.

[44] 覃嘉铭,袁道先,林玉石,等.公元8世纪以来贵州荔波石笋高分辨率的气候变化记录.中国岩溶,2008,27(3):266~272.

[45] E.布赖恩特著,刘东生编译.气候过程和气候变化.北京:科学出版社,2004.230.

[46] 陈家其,施雅风,张强,等.从长江上游近500年历史气候看1860、1870年大洪水气候变化背景.湖泊科学,2006,18(5):476~483.