关键词: 铁路, 路网规模, 连通度, 空间运输联系, GIS

Abstract:

Railways are playing an increasingly important role in economic, social and urban development in China. Now the government expects to stimulate consumption by increasing investment especially in infrastructure due to the influence of the world economic crisis. This macro-economic setting provides a very good opportunity for the development of railways and high-speed railways. Firstly, this paper compares various methods of network scale estimation, such as network analysis method, transport demanding method, analogy method and statistical analysis method, and finds that different methods have different demands for data, and their adaptability is also different. However, in all these methods, geographical & spatial characteristics and economic & social indicators are the basic elements which decide the final scale of railway network. Based on the above conclusion, this paper builds a methodology of analyzing railway network scale, and considers the railway network of China will be composed of three parts, i.e., basic railway network, high-speed railway network and inter-city railway transit. This paper deals with the first two networks. Based on the available data and appropriate method, an accessibility model is chosen to estimate the basic scale of China's railway network, and absolute connection intensity and dominant flow analysis are used to estimate high-speed railway network scale. Finally the whole railway network scale is combined and decided with GIS method. The result shows that China's railway network scale is estimated to be 150,000 km, twice as long as it is now, and its spatial service will be greatly advanced.

Key words: railway, network scale, accessibility, spatial transport connection, GIS