沈阳市城市扩展与土地利用变化多情景模拟

doi:10.11821/yj2009050013

地理研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 1264-1275.doi: 10.11821/yj2009050013

沈阳市城市扩展与土地利用变化多情景模拟

吴晓青^1,2, 胡远满¹, 贺红士¹, 布仁仓¹, 郗凤明^1,3

1. 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳 110016;
2. 中国科学院烟台海岸带可持续发展研究所, 烟台 264003;
3. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2008-06-07 修回日期:2009-06-09 出版日期:2009-09-25 发布日期:2009-09-25
作者简介:吴晓青(1978-), 女,山东肥城人,博士, 助理研究员。主要从事GIS、遥感和景观生态学研究。 E-mail: xqwu@yic.ac.cn *通讯作者 : 胡远满,研究员,博士生导师。E-mail: hym@iae.ac.cn
基金资助:
中科院知识创新工程前沿领域项目(O6LYQY1001)和国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAJ10B05-03).

Research for scenarios simulation of future urban growth and land use change in Shenyang City

WU Xiao-qing^1,2, HU Yuan-man¹, HE Hong-shi¹, BU Ren-cang¹, XI Feng-ming^1,3

1. Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS, Shenyang 110016, China;
2. Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research for Sustainable Development, CAS, Yantai 264003, China;
3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2008-06-07 Revised:2009-06-09 Online:2009-09-25 Published:2009-09-25
Supported by:
中科院知识创新工程前沿领域项目(O6LYQY1001)和国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAJ10B05-03).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用基于遥感手段获取的沈阳市城市扩展与土地利用变化历史数据,对SLEUTH城市扩展模型进行校正,对未来(2005~2030年)不同管理情景下的城市扩展与土地利用变化过程进行模拟,并对其发展变化趋势和生态环境影响进行分析与比较。结果显示,在三种管理情景下,未来的沈阳市城市建设用地都将持续增加,大量的耕地资源被侵占;但不同管理情景下,城市景观格局和区域面临的景观生态风险却表现出明显差异。SLEUTH模型的模拟结果较好地反映了沈阳市不同土地利用政策、规划方案等对未来城市扩展和土地利用变化以及区域景观生态风险的潜在影响,同时也指出了当前城市增长管理政策中存在的不足之处。

关键词: 城市扩展, 土地利用变化, 情景模拟, SLEUTH, 沈阳市

Abstract:

SELUTH urban growth model was used to simulate the process of future urban growth and land use changes, and to explore potential environmental impacts of urban development under different policy scenarios in Shenyang city. The SLEUTH model was calibrated with historical data (1988~2004) extracted from a time series of TM satellite images, and the future growth was projected out to 2030 assuming three different urban growth management scenarios: (1) current trends development scenario (Scenario CT), (2) urban planning and regional development scenario (Scenario PP) , and (3) eco-environmental protection management scenario (Scenario EP), Scenarios analysis showed that Shenyang City would be faced with sustaining urban expansion, and large amounts of farmland would be occupied by urban land under all policy scenarios. But, the patterns of urban landscape and regional landscape ecological risks resulting from urban growth would show significant differences under different policy scenarios. Under Scenario CT, urban growth area would add up to 277.0 km², of which 224.8 km² would result from the conversion of farmland to urban land. And urban development pattern would be relatively dispersed and complex, which could result in relatively high landscape ecological risk under no management. Under Scenario PP, urban land showed relatively low growth rate and urban development pattern would be more dispersed with higher landscape ecological risk than Scenario CT. Under Scenario EP, urban expansion would concentrate on existing urban land and show compact development pattern with relatively low regional landscape ecological risk. Simulation results from SLEUTH model gave good expression for the potential affects of different land use policies and urban planning scenarios on future urban growth and land use changes and landscape ecological risks. Simultaneously, these results pointed out the disadvantages of current management policies for urban growth in Shenyang City. In the process of implementation of current urban planning scenario and regional development policy, the government should pay more attention to optimization of urban spatial pattern and protection of farmland from urban expansion. And, it was necessary to take stringent environmental protection measures, to encourage compact urban growth, and to enhance intensive use of the existing land resources in future urban growth management of Shenyang City.

Key words: urban growth, land use change, scenario simulation, SLEUTH, Shenyang City

吴晓青, 胡远满, 贺红士, 布仁仓, 郗凤明. 沈阳市城市扩展与土地利用变化多情景模拟[J]. 地理研究, 2009, 28(5): 1264-1275.

WU Xiao-qing, HU Yuan-man, HE Hong-shi, BU Ren-cang, XI Feng-ming. Research for scenarios simulation of future urban growth and land use change in Shenyang City[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2009, 28(5): 1264-1275.

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沈阳市城市扩展与土地利用变化多情景模拟

Research for scenarios simulation of future urban growth and land use change in Shenyang City

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