地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 416-422.doi: 10.11821/yj2010030004

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝风险评估

盛绍学1, 石磊1, 刘家福2, 叶金印3, 刘荆2   

  1. 1. 安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,安徽 合肥 230061;
    2. 北京师范大学资源学院,北京 100875;
    3. 淮河流域气象中心,安徽 蚌埠 233000
  • 收稿日期:2009-08-13 修回日期:2009-12-15 出版日期:2010-03-20 发布日期:2010-03-20
  • 作者简介:盛绍学(1963-),男,安徽省淮南市人,高级工程师。主要研究方向为气象灾害和气候资源分析。 E-mail:shengshxue@sohu.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局新技术推广项目"淮河流域暴雨洪水预报业务系统研究"和淮河流域气象开放研究基金、国家863计划(2009AA12Z124)联合资助。

Assessment of rainstorm flood risk in the area of lakes and depressions along Huaihe River

SHENG Shao-xue1, SHI Lei1, LIU Jia-fu2, YE Jin-yin3, LIU Jing2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing, Anhui Province, Hefei 230061, China;
    2. College of Resources, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    3. Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center, Bengbu 233000, Anhui, China
  • Received:2009-08-13 Revised:2009-12-15 Online:2010-03-20 Published:2010-03-20

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摘要：

根据自然灾害风险评估基本原理,从暴雨洪涝致灾因子危险性及承灾体易损性出发,以沿淮湖泊洼地区域为示范研究区,综合考虑降水量、径流量、地形与河网密度、土地利用数据、人口及经济数据等指标,利用GIS的数据处理功能,运用标准化方法对相关指标进行标准化处理,得到标准化的多源栅格数据;基于层次分析法确定各影响指标因子权重,采用ARCGIS9.2的ModelBuilder建模工具建立暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型;通过地理信息系统的地图代数功能及综合指数法,得出洪水灾害综合风险等级评价图;并利用2003年沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝淹没面积数据验证暴雨灾害综合风险评估结果;统计分析发现,洪涝淹没区有60.66％位于高风险区,33.29%位于中高风险区,6.05％位于中风险区;结果表明, 沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝中高风险及高风险区的准确度达93.95％,洪涝灾害风险评估结果基本符合实际情况,风险评估精度较高。模型的建立及风险区划图的制作,对暴雨洪涝灾害宏观决策具有重要的参考价值。

关键词: 暴雨洪涝, 风险评估, 淮河流域, 湖泊洼地

Abstract:

Taking the lakes and depressions along the Huaihe River region as the research object, several indexes including the rainfall, runoff, terrain, rivers, land use, population, and economic data, were combined in this study, based on the principles of risk assessment for natural disasters and flood disasters factors such as the fatalness of inducing factors and the vulnerability of hazard bearing body. Preprocessing models provided by GIS software were used to standardize related parameters, and the standardized multi-source datasets in raster format were obtained. Models for evaluating the rainstorm and flood disaster risks were developed with the ModelBuilder tools of ArcGIS9.2 by combining various influencing factors, and the weights of which were determined through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach. Then a comprehensive flood risk rating map was generated through the map algebra functions in GIS and the comprehensive index method. The results of the comprehensive risk assessment of storm disaster were validated with the regional rainstorm and flood inundation area in the Huaihe River region in 2003. Statistical analysis shows that flood inundated area was 60.66% in the extremely high risk zone, 33.29% in the high risk zone, and 6.05% in the medium risk zone. Results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed approach reaches 93.95% in middle and high risk areas along the Huaihe River. The high accuracies in this study suggest that the proposed model and the generated comprehensive flood risk rating map yield valuable significance for supporting decision-making on flood disasters.

Key words: rainstorm flood, risk assessment, Huaihe River basin, lakes and depressions