地理研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 640-654.doi: 10.11821/yj2010040007

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1970~2008年安徽省气温时空格局变化

查良松1, 陈晓红2, 吉中会1, 赵萍3, 彭洋1, 王莹莹1   

  1. 1. 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,芜湖 241003;
    2. 安徽省气象台,合肥 230031;
    3. 合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,合肥 230009
  • 收稿日期:2009-06-15 修回日期:2009-12-16 出版日期:2010-04-20 发布日期:2010-04-20
  • 作者简介:查良松(1953-),男,安徽铜陵人,教授。主要从主气候环境变化和模型设计与GIS应用研究。 E-mail:chaliangs@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金 (40771207)。

Spatial-temporal changes of temperature in Anhui Province during 1970~2008

ZHA Liang-song1, CHEN Xiao-hong2, JI Zhong-hui1, ZHAO Ping3, PENG Yang1, WANG Ying-ying1   

  1. 1. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241003, Anhui, China;
    2. Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China;
    3. College of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
  • Received:2009-06-15 Revised:2009-12-16 Online:2010-04-20 Published:2010-04-20

摘要:

采用协同克里格(Co-kriging)指数模型对安徽省1970~2008年平均气温、日极端最高、低气温进行空间插值。结果表明:全省平均日极端最高气温的分布与平均气温分布基本相反,平均日极端最低气温的分布与平均气温分布基本一致,前者反映日极端最高气温时空格局是不稳定的,后者反映日极端最低气温时空格局是稳定的。20世纪全省日极端最低气温具有1970年代低、80年代高、90年代低、21世纪头10年高的年代际变化周期;全省年平均气温和日极端最高气温是70年代升高、80年代下降、90年代和21世纪头10年继续升高,但值得注意的是21世纪头10年代年平均气温增长量比90年代小0.1℃。芜湖、安庆、马鞍山等沿江城市对气温升高贡献率突出,90年代年平均气温和日极端最高气温分别比80年代增加0.7℃和0.25℃,21世纪头10年年平均气温和日极端最高气温分别比90年代增加0.8℃和1.13℃,已超过大别山区相应的增长量一倍以上。

关键词: 协同克里格法, 时空格局, 年平均气温, 日极端气温, 年代际变化, 安徽

Abstract:

The average temperature, extreme maximum and minimum temperature in Anhui Province during 1970-2008 are interpolated according to Co-kriging in this paper. The results are as follows. Firstly, the average temperature is 15.7℃, and the southern part of the province and the zones along the Yangtze River are the high temperature regions where the temperature is higher than 16℃; Secondly, the average daily extreme maximum temperature (DETmax) is 37.5℃, higher in the southern and northern parts but lower in the middle part, and even sometimes the average DETmax in the south is lower than that in the north. Thirdly, the average daily extreme minimum temperature (DETmin) is about -8.3℃. It is below -9.4℃ to the north of Huaihe River, and above -7.0℃ in the areas along the Yangtze River. The centers of the maximum temperature are Wangjiang, Susong, Huaining and Dongzhi where the temperature is above -6.9℃. Therefore, the distribution of average DETmax is inconsistent with that of the average temperature, while the distribution of average DETmin is consistent with that of the average temperature. The former shows that the spatial-temporal pattern of the DETmax is unstable, while the latter shows that the spatial-temporal pattern of the DETmin is stable. It is found that the inter-decadal variation of the DETmin is low in the 1970s and 1990s and high in the 1980s and the first ten years of the 21st century (hereafter 2000s). The annual average temperature and DETmax rose in the 1970s, 1990s and 2000s, and fell in the 1980s. It is worth noting that the increase of average temperature in the 2000s is 0.1℃ lower than that in the 1990s. The cities along the Yangtze River, such as Wuhu, Anqing and Ma'anshan, have made great contributions to temperature increase. The annual average temperature in the 2000s is 0.8℃ higher than that in the 1990s. The DETmin in the 2000s is 1.13℃ higher than that in the 1990s. The annual average temperature in the 1990s is 0.7℃ higher than that in the 1980s. The DETmax in the 1990s is 0.25℃higher than that in the 1980s. The increase in cities along the Yangtze River exceeds twice in comparison to the Dabieshan mountainous area. Therefore, the temperature variation can be slowed down if urban construction is reasonably programmed, the forest cover rate is raised and the environment is protected.

Key words: Co-kriging, spatial-temporal pattern, annual average temperature, daily extreme maximum/minimum temperature, inter-decadal variation, Anhui Province