广西晚稻低温冷害空间分析模型构建及其区划

doi:10.11821/yj2010060009

地理研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 1037-1044.doi: 10.11821/yj2010060009

广西晚稻低温冷害空间分析模型构建及其区划

何燕¹, 李政¹, 钟仕全¹, 徐世宏², 欧钊荣¹

1. 广西区气象减灾研究所/国家卫星气象中心遥感应用示范基地,南宁530022;
2. 广西区农业技术推广总站,南宁530022

收稿日期:2009-09-16 修回日期:2010-03-18 出版日期:2010-06-20 发布日期:2010-06-20
作者简介:何燕(1967-),女,广西玉林人,高级工程师。主要从事生态与农业气象及灾害监测评估预警等研究。 E-mail:heyan_gx@163.com,Tel:0771-5882822
基金资助:
广西自然科学基金项目"水稻冷害的GIS监测预警技术研究"(0832204);广西农业重点科技计划项目(200702);广西科技攻关项目(0816006);国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BADB8B01)

The construction of cold damage models of late rice for spatial analysis and zoning in Guangxi

HE Yan¹, LI Zheng¹, ZHONG Shi-quan¹, XU Shi-hong², DING Mei-hua¹

1. Guangxi Meteorological Disaster Mitigation Institute, Nanning 530022, China;
2. Guangxi General Station for Agricultural Technology Extension, Nanning 530022, China

Received:2009-09-16 Revised:2010-03-18 Online:2010-06-20 Published:2010-06-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据晚稻生长状况、受害程度与低温冷害强度关系,确定晚稻冷害等级指标;利用广西90个气象台站46年的气候资料和站点地理信息,采用GIS技术和数理统计回归分析以及气候资源的细网格推算方法,建立晚稻冷害的空间分析模型,推算出1km×1km分辨率的冷害指标因子空间分布;并根据晚稻冷害分级指标,通过GIS的空间分析能力,分析广西晚稻低温冷害的空间分布特征,得出广西无冷害和轻度、中度、严重冷害等四个区域的区划结果,制作广西晚稻低温冷害区划专题图,对分区结果进行评述并指出了冷害的战略防御和应急防御措施,为广西水稻生产的趋利避害和优化布局提供决策依据。

关键词: GIS技术, 晚稻, 低温冷害, 灾害区划

Abstract:

The climate in Guangxi is complex due to the environment in geographical location and terrains as well as the alternation of summer and winter monsoons. It resulted in frequent weather disasters such as cold damage. And the cold damage, especially the weather of cold dew wind, has been one of the main constraint factors for high yield rice in Guangxi. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out disaster division research into cold damage of the late rice in Guangxi by GIS. And this research is of practical significance to making science countermeasure of disaster prevention and mitigation, in promoting high and stable yield of foodstuff and in maintaining social harmony and stability. According to the relationship among late rice growth, the degree of injury and the intensity of cold damage, the grading indices of cold damage for late rice were analyzed and decided. Using the climatic data from 1961 to 2006 and geographical information data of 90 weather stations in Guangxi, space calculating models for the zoning index of cold damage are built by the regression method of mathematical statistics, supported by GIS technology and simulation analysis method of small grids models of climate resources, and the use of the basic Guangxi geographic data on a scale of 1:250000, calculation of small gridding and correction of error are operated for those zoning indexes. The actual distribution for the zoning index of cold damage is worked out on a small grid of l km×l km, which gives different values under different geographical conditions. Using the function of spatial analyses and multi-overlapping method of GIS, and according to the grading indices of cold damage, grid data of the zoning index are calculated in the climate zone by the method of scoring to sort out the kinds. Then the spatial distribution of cold damage for late rice in Guangxi was analyzed, which gave out the divisional result of cold damage: zero, light, moderate and serious degree, and the results of assessment for different cold damage regions were summarized. The map of climatic division of cold damage for late rice in Guangxi can be drawn by GIS, and it provides a scientific basis for optimal distribution of late rice planting in Guangxi, and for making use of advantage and avoiding disadvantage.

Key words: GIS technology, late rice, cold damage, disaster zoning

何燕,李政,钟仕全,徐世宏,欧钊荣. 广西晚稻低温冷害空间分析模型构建及其区划[J]. 地理研究, 2010, 29(6): 1037-1044.

HE Yan, LI Zheng, ZHONG Shi-quan, XU Shi-hong, DING Mei-hua, OU Zhao-rong, TAN Zong-kun. The construction of cold damage models of late rice for spatial analysis and zoning in Guangxi[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2010, 29(6): 1037-1044.

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广西晚稻低温冷害空间分析模型构建及其区划

The construction of cold damage models of late rice for spatial analysis and zoning in Guangxi

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