地理研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 1045-1055.doi: 10.11821/yj2010060010

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

湖北省近500年区域干湿序列重建及其比较分析

徐新创1,2, 葛全胜1, 郑景云1, 刘成武2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;
    2. 咸宁学院资源与环境科学学院,咸宁 437100
  • 收稿日期:2009-11-20 修回日期:2010-03-15 出版日期:2010-06-20 发布日期:2010-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 葛全胜(1963-),男,博士生导师。主要从事全球变化方向研究。E-mail:geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:徐新创(1976-),男,博士研究生。主要从事全球变化方向研究。E-mail:xuxc.08b@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-315-4);国家科技支撑计划重大项目(2007BAC03A01);湖北省高等学校优秀中青年科技创新团队资助计划项目(T200708);湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2006BAB15B02)

Reconstruction and comparative analysis of dry/wet series in last 500 years in Hubei Province

XU Xin-chuang1,2, GE Quan-sheng1, ZHENG Jing-yun1, LIU Cheng-wu2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. School of Resources and Environment Science, Xianning College, Xianning 437100,Hubei, China
  • Received:2009-11-20 Revised:2010-03-15 Online:2010-06-20 Published:2010-06-20

摘要:

在历史旱涝记载资料可靠性检验的基础上,重建了湖北省3个区域近500年来的干湿气候变化序列,并比较分析了各区域干湿气候变化的趋势特征、准周期性及跃变现象。结果表明:在3个区域中,鄂东区1570~1770、1890~1950年两个时段偏湿,1470~1520、1790~1830年则偏干;鄂北区偏湿时期主要在1470~1530、1710~1750、1850~1910年三个时段,1470~1530、1770~1830年则偏干;鄂西南区有1550~1610、1650~1710、1830~1890、1930~1990年4个主要偏湿时期,而无明显的偏干时段。运用功率谱和小波分析对3个干湿序列研究后发现,3个区域干湿变化具有多个气象周期,区域间周期类型差异显著,但50~70年左右的周期在3个区域上均表现突出;采用滑动t检验方法辨识干湿气候跃变现象,在"世纪尺度"和 30年尺度上检测到各区域干湿变化存在多个跃变事件,且同一跃变事件对不同区域向干(或向湿)影响的趋势相同。

关键词: 干湿序列, 气候变化, 湖北省

Abstract:

The reconstruction of long series climate with annual resolution is an objective proposed by the IGBP-PAGES. Historical records on drought/flood are an important data source for reconstructing historical climate series. There are abundant and sequential drought/flood records in the Chinese historic documents. This research employed 6 regional drought/flood series within Hubei Province, which were derived from Collection of Historical Records on Climate in Hubei Province during Past 500 Years and covered a period from 1470 to 2000. By classification analysis of the 6 regional drought/flood series, they were classified into 3 categories which individually represented eastern, northern and southwestern regions of Hubei Province. After testing validity of the reconstructed series, we analyzed regional dry/wet variability, cycles and abrupt changes. The results showed that on multiple decades scale 1570~1770 and 1890~1950 were wet episodes and 1470~1520 and 1790~1830 were dry episodes in eastern region; 1470~1530, 1710~1750 and 1850~1910 were three wet episodes and 1470~1530 and 1770~1830 were two dry episodes in northern region; 1550~1610, 1650~1710, 1830~1890 and 1930~1990 were four wet episodes and there were no obvious dry episodes in southwestern region. The spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis illustrated that the dry/wet variations of each region were featured by several significant cycles spanning from 3~4 years to 250 years. Moreover, the three regions were commonly controlled by 50~70 years cycle. Running T-test illustrated that on centurial scale 2, 4 and 5 abrupt changes occurred individually in southwestern, northern and eastern regions while on 30-year scale 5, 4 and 7 abrupt changes occurred individually in southwestern, northern and eastern regions. The abrupt changes simultaneously occurring in three or any two regions had the same trends; the abrupt changes from dry to wet in 1822 occurred in all of the three regions.

Key words: recent 500 years, dry/wet series, climate change, Hubei Province