地理研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 1502-1509.doi: 10.11821/yj2010080015

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对河北省海河流域径流量的影响

邵爱军, 左丽琼, 王丽君   

  1. 石家庄经济学院,石家庄 050031
  • 收稿日期:2009-06-01 修回日期:2009-12-26 出版日期:2010-08-25 发布日期:2010-08-30
  • 作者简介:
    邵爱军(1960-),男,博士,教授。研究方向为水资源与水环境,E-mail: shaoaijun@sohu.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(40672163);河北省自然科学基金(D2004000480)

Impact of climatic change on runoff of Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province

SHAO Ai-jun, ZUO Li-qiong, WANG Li-jun   

  1. Shijiazhuang University of Economics, Shijiazhuang 050031, China
  • Received:2009-06-01 Revised:2009-12-26 Online:2010-08-25 Published:2010-08-30

摘要:

利用河北省境内海河流域51个气象站、68个水文站1956~2000年近50年的气象、径流量数据,分析了气象要素和径流量的变化规律。河北省境内海河流域多年平均地表径流量为67.0×108m3,从20世纪 50 年代至 90 年代地表径流量呈逐渐减小的趋势,50年代为105.3×108m3,90年代为54.7×108m3。地表径流量随降水量的减少而减小,随气温的升高而下降,用回归方法建立的径流量与气象要素之间的模型为对数模型。根据未来气候变化情景对河北省海河流域径流量的预测:2030年为70.0~76.8×108m3,2050年为69.8~76.9×108m3

关键词: 海河流域, 气候变化, 地表径流量, 径流量距平, 灵敏度分析

Abstract:

Based on the data of climate and runoff from 51 weather stations and 68 hydrologic stations of the Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province from 1956 to 2000, the change of essential climatic factors and runoff are analyzed in this paper. The average annual surface runoff of the Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province is 67.0×108 m3, which decreased from 105.3×108 m3 in the 1950s to 54.7×108 m3 in the 1990s. The runoff reduces with the decrease of the precipitation and the rise of the temperature. The models of essential climatic factors and the runoff established by the multiple regression analysis are logarithmic non-linear functions. Finally, based on the prediction of the future climatic change in 2030 and 2050, the surface runoff of the Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province will be 70.0×108~76.8×108 m3 in 2030 and 69.8×108~76.9×108 m3 in 2050,respectively.

Key words: Haihe River Basin, climatic change, surface runoff, runoff anomaly, sensitivity analysis