关键词: 城市, 工业能源消费, 分解

Abstract: Since the 1980s, industrial energy has always been dominating the nation's total energy consumption. Statistics show that the trend has been strengthened by further industrialization of cities during the past 30 years. Hence, this paper aims to explore the interrelationships between industrial energy consumption and urban development, and finds an efficient mode for urban development from the perspective of energy consumption. A simple and practical method of energy decomposition analysis is proposed in this paper. The changes of industrial energy consumption are decomposed into industrial structure effect, technological effect and economic scale effect. Based on available data from statistical yearbooks, 99 prefecture-level cities of China are chosen as samples and the period spans from 2001 to 2006. The results show that the growing weight of heavy industry, such as metallurgical, chemical and building material industries, has led to a new round of industrial energy consumption growth during this period. Expanding economic scale of cities is the major factor for the sharp increase of industrial energy consumption. The advancement of technology has effectively suppressed industrial energy demands in cities, while the industrial restructuring has little impact on the changes of industrial energy consumption. It is also indicated that cities with the population size of 20—50 million have the most effective industrial structure effect, technological effect and economic scale effect. As the deviation from the population size of 20—50 million increases, cities have less efficient industrial structure effect and technological effect for energy conservation. But increasing growths of population size and industrial economy will not definitely lead to sharp growths of industrial energy consumption and low efficiency of energy utility, which largely depends on the energy-saving effect of technological potential. Taking Beijing as an example, its high speeds of industrial and population increases in 1999-2007 were sustained by fast technical progresses and thus nearly zero growth of industrial energy consumption. On the other hand, industrial energy consumption per industrial added value is used as a complementary parameter to reflect the difference of energy efficiency among various scales of cities. It is suggested that cities with the population size above 200 million perform much higher energy efficiency than smaller cities. However, one cannot ignore individual differences among cities; they might perform quite differently on the efficiency of industrial energy consumption even in the same population size.

Key words: city, industrial energy consumption, decomposition