地理研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 153-160.doi: 10.11821/yj2011010015

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对甘肃省冬小麦气候适宜性的影响

蒲金涌1,2, 姚小英3, 王位泰4   

  1. 1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾开放实验室, 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,兰州 730020;
    2. 甘肃省天水农业气象试验站,天水 741020;
    3. 天水市气象局, 天水 741000;
    4. 甘肃省西峰农业气象实验站, 西峰 745000
  • 收稿日期:2010-04-18 修回日期:2010-07-12 出版日期:2011-01-20 发布日期:2011-01-20
  • 作者简介:蒲金涌(1960-),男,汉族,高级工程师,主要从事应用气象业务及试验研究工作。 Email:pujinyong6@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    甘肃省气象局"十人计划"国家科技部公益行业专项(GYHY200806021)资助

Influence of climate change on climate suitability of wheat in Gansu

PU Jin-yong1,2, YAO Xiao-ying3, WANG Wei-tai4   

  1. 1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Open Laboratory of Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
    2. The Agrometeorological Experimental Station of Tianshui, Tianshui 741020, Gansu, China;
    3. Tianshui Meteorological Bureau, Tianshui 741000, Gansu, China;
    4. Agrometeorologial Experimental Station of Xifeng in Gansu Province, Xifeng 745000, Gansu, China
  • Received:2010-04-18 Revised:2010-07-12 Online:2011-01-20 Published:2011-01-20

摘要: 运用甘肃省冬小麦种植区西峰、天水农业气象试验站及平凉、成县农业气象观测站1981~2008年冬小麦试验田平均物候观测资料及试验点气象站1971~2008年逐日日照、温度、降水量测量值,建立了冬小麦日照、温度、降水及综合气候适宜度计算模型,并对1971~2008年冬小麦各生产年度气候适宜度动态变化进行了评价。结果表明:冬小麦全生育期温度、光照、降水及综合气候平均适宜度分别为0.77、0.66、0.50及0.60。温度和光照适宜性较高,降水是冬小麦生长发育的主要限制因子。在近40年中,温度和光照适宜度分别以0.001·a-1及0.0014·a-1线性趋势上升,降水适宜度以0.0013·a-1线性趋势下降。综合气候适宜度线性变化不明显。冬前生长阶段光照适宜性较强,降水适宜性较弱。越冬期降水适宜性较强,光照适宜性较弱。返青期~抽穗期及抽穗期~成熟期温度适宜性较强,降水适宜性较弱。冬前生长阶段及返青期~抽穗期,冬小麦温度、降水适宜度呈上升趋势,光照适宜度呈下降趋势,气候因子组合效果趋好。越冬期及抽穗期~成熟期温度、降水适宜度呈下降趋势,光照适宜度呈上升趋势,综合气候适宜性变差。冬小麦生长后期水分胁迫较大。

关键词: 气候变化, 甘肃, 冬小麦, 气候适宜性, 影响

Abstract: Based on the data of winter wheat experimental field and meteorological data in Xifeng and Tianshui agrometeorological experiment stations and Pingliang and Chenxian agrometeorological observation stations from 1981 to 2008, the models of climate suitability had been established. The dynamic variation of climate suitability in the whole growth period from 1971 to 2008 was evaluated. The results showed that the suitability degrees of temperature, light, precipitation and synthesized climate were 0.77, 0.66, 0.50 and 0.60 respectively during the whole growth period of winter wheat. It is indicated that the temperature and light suitability degree increased by 0.001 and 0.0014 every year respectively and precipitation suitability degree decreased by 0.0013 every year from 1971 to 2008. The accumulated departure of temperature and precipitation suitability degree increased by 0.006 every year and accumulated departure of light suitability decreased by 0.0923 every year from sowing to stopping growing period in recent years. The accumulated departure of temperature decreased by 0.0254 every year and light suitability increased by 0.0139 every year during the overwinter period in recent years. The accumulated departure of temperature and light suitability decreased by 0.0497 and 0.0186 every year respectively from reviving to heading period in recent years. But the accumulated departure of precipitation increased by 0.0262 every year since 1971 and the meteorological condition was becoming better in this growth period. The accumulated departure of temperature and precipitation suitability degree decreased by 0.0031 and 0.016 every year and the accumulated departure of light suitability degree increased by 0.0637 every year during heading to mature period in recent years. The synthesized results of all climatic factors trended grim in this period. Precipitation was main limiting factors during the later growth period of winter wheat. We suggested that countermeasures for climate change should be modified in accordance with climate suitability in order to utilize climate resource effectively.

Key words: climate change, Gansu province, winter wheat, climate suitability, influence