关键词: 系统动力学模型, CLUE-S模型, 土地利用/覆盖变化, 情景分析

Abstract: Recently, scientists have developed different models of land use/cover change (LUCC) depending on their objectives and background. However, no single model is able to capture all of key processes essential to explore land use change at different scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and impacts. In this paper, we would like to make our efforts to develop an approach in combination of SD model and CLUE-S model to deal with some shortcomings of the existing LUCC models and to properly address the processes at different scales that give rise to the land use dynamics. The approach presented in this study will be helpful to understand the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and managements, and also can be used as data source in scenario analysis of different hydrological processes based on different underlying surfaces of LUCC. The objectives of the study are: (1) to develop an SD model to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during the period 2000~2035, (2) to improve the characterization and presentation of the land use change processes by developing a CLUE-S model that will transfer and allocate land demands from SD model to spatially explicit land use patterns at a finer spatial scale (at 500 m resolution in our study), and the Kappa value of the land use map simulation in 2000 is 0.86 and the Kappa value is 0.81 in 2005, and (3) to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of combining and integrating the current land use change models. The further objective of this study is to find the key driving factors of LUCC (e.g., human factors, including social capital, different cultural types and so on), and these factors should be represented as different spatial maps and integrated into the model analysis to improve land use change modeling and projection.

Key words: system dynamic model, CLUE-S model, LUCC, scenario analysis