气候变化情景下中国陆地生态系统碳吸收功能风险评价

doi:10.11821/yj2011040003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化会对陆地生态系统的碳吸收产生影响,从而改变其碳的源汇功能。因此,评估未来气候变化下陆地生态系统碳吸收功能面临的风险,可以为中国应对气候变化措施的制定和国际碳排放谈判提供科学依据。本文采用大气-植被相互作用模型对气候变化情景下净生态系统生产力进行模拟,运用线性倾向估计方法确定碳吸收功能风险评估标准,对中国陆地生态系统未来近期、中期和远期的碳吸收功能面临的风险进行了探讨。研究表明:IPCC SRES-B2情景下,气候变化可能会给中国陆地生态系统的碳吸收功能带来风险。风险的范围与程度可能会随着增温幅度的变化而加剧。到本世纪远期,六成左右的生态系统会面临碳吸收功能风险,主要分布在西北地区、东北山区、长江中下游平原地区、华南地区以及西南地区。风险程度随增温幅度增加的变化以发展为主,主要集中在近期到中期阶段。未来气候变化下,西北区将成为危险性高的区域,混交林、荒漠草原和落叶针叶林将成为危险性高的生态系统。

关键词: 风险, 碳吸收, 中国, 陆地生态系统

Abstract: Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration, and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystem will be helpful to the decision-making of climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiation. Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystem simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model, each grid of the risk criterion was set by time-series trend analysis. Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystem were investigated. The results show that, under the IPCC SRES-B2 climate scenario, the climate change will bring risk of carbon sequestration, and the high risk level will dominate the terrestrial ecosystems. The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree. Till the long-term of this century, about 60% of the whole country will face the risk, Northwest China, mountainous areas in Northeast China, Middle and Lower Reaches Plain of Yangtze River areas, Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable. Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree, and this increase will mainly occur during near-term to mid-term. Northwest China, deciduous coniferous forest, temperate mixed forest and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.

Key words: isk, carbon sequestration, China, terrestrial ecosystem

石晓丽, 吴绍洪, 戴尔阜, 赵东升, 潘韬. 气候变化情景下中国陆地生态系统碳吸收功能风险评价[J]. 地理研究, 2011, 30(4): 601-611.

SHI Xiao-li, WU Shao-hong, DAI Er-fu, ZHAO Dong-sheng, PAN Tao. Risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems from climate change in China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2011, 30(4): 601-611.

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