地理研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 601-611.doi: 10.11821/yj2011040003

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化情景下中国陆地生态系统碳吸收功能风险评价

石晓丽1,2,3, 吴绍洪1, 戴尔阜1, 赵东升1, 潘韬1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101;
    2. 河北师范大学资源与环境科学 学院,石家庄 050016;
    3. 河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,石家庄 050016
  • 收稿日期:2010-05-21 修回日期:2011-01-04 出版日期:2011-04-20 发布日期:2011-04-20
  • 通讯作者: 吴绍洪(1961-),男,博士,研究员,从事自然地理综合研究。Email: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:石晓丽(1981-),女,博士,从事自然地理研究。E-mail:shixiaoli_2004@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    "十一五"国家科技支撑项目(2006BAD20B05);河北师范大学博士科研启动基金(130526)

Risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems from climate change in China

SHI Xiao-li1,2,3, WU Shao-hong1, DAI Er-fu1, ZHAO Dong-sheng1, PAN Tao1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050016, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolvement and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050016, China
  • Received:2010-05-21 Revised:2011-01-04 Online:2011-04-20 Published:2011-04-20

摘要: 气候变化会对陆地生态系统的碳吸收产生影响,从而改变其碳的源汇功能。因此,评估未来气候变化下陆地生态系统碳吸收功能面临的风险,可以为中国应对气候变化措施的制定和国际碳排放谈判提供科学依据。本文采用大气-植被相互作用模型对气候变化情景下净生态系统生产力进行模拟,运用线性倾向估计方法确定碳吸收功能风险评估标准,对中国陆地生态系统未来近期、中期和远期的碳吸收功能面临的风险进行了探讨。研究表明:IPCC SRES-B2情景下,气候变化可能会给中国陆地生态系统的碳吸收功能带来风险。风险的范围与程度可能会随着增温幅度的变化而加剧。到本世纪远期,六成左右的生态系统会面临碳吸收功能风险,主要分布在西北地区、东北山区、长江中下游平原地区、华南地区以及西南地区。风险程度随增温幅度增加的变化以发展为主,主要集中在近期到中期阶段。未来气候变化下,西北区将成为危险性高的区域,混交林、荒漠草原和落叶针叶林将成为危险性高的生态系统。

关键词: 风险, 碳吸收, 中国, 陆地生态系统

Abstract: Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration, and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystem will be helpful to the decision-making of climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiation. Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystem simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model, each grid of the risk criterion was set by time-series trend analysis. Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystem were investigated. The results show that, under the IPCC SRES-B2 climate scenario, the climate change will bring risk of carbon sequestration, and the high risk level will dominate the terrestrial ecosystems. The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree. Till the long-term of this century, about 60% of the whole country will face the risk, Northwest China, mountainous areas in Northeast China, Middle and Lower Reaches Plain of Yangtze River areas, Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable. Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree, and this increase will mainly occur during near-term to mid-term. Northwest China, deciduous coniferous forest, temperate mixed forest and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.

Key words: isk, carbon sequestration, China, terrestrial ecosystem