地理研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 612-621.doi: 10.11821/yj2011040004

• 水文与水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国省级间农产品虚拟水流动适宜性评价

孙才志1,2, 陈丽新2, 刘玉玉2   

  1. 1. 辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,大连 116029;
    2. 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,大连 116029
  • 收稿日期:2010-06-17 修回日期:2010-12-12 出版日期:2011-04-20 发布日期:2011-04-20
  • 作者简介:孙才志(1970-),男,山东烟台人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水资源评价与管理研究。 E-mail:suncaizhi@sohu.com
  • 基金资助:

    教育部人文社科规划基金(10YTA790163);国家社会科学基金(07BJY066)

Suitability evaluation of crops virtual water flows in China

SUN Cai-zhi1,2, CHEN Li-xin2, LIU Yu-yu2   

  1. 1. KRI, Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China;
    2. Urban and Environment College of Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2010-06-17 Revised:2010-12-12 Online:2011-04-20 Published:2011-04-20

摘要: 尝试从农业生产安全系统、支持系统和水资源安全系统入手,共选取18个指标,构建我国国内农产品虚拟水流动适宜性评价指标体系。运用层次分析法和投影寻踪等方法对我国31个省级行政区农产品虚拟水流动适宜性程度进行定量评价。结果表明:吉林、黑龙江、湖南、上海、北京等地农产品虚拟水流动适宜性程度最高,而宁夏、西藏的适宜性程度最低。对各地区农产品虚拟水流动的适宜性指数进行等级划分,农产品虚拟水流动高适宜性流出区主要位于东北地区,中等适宜性流出区主要分布在华北南部和长江中下游平原。高适宜性流入区以上海、北京、天津和西北地区最为典型,中等适宜性流入区以东南沿海地区为主,低适宜性流入区则主要位于西南地区。对各地区农产品虚拟水流动的适宜性程度进行分析,并结合各地区的实际情况,提出进行虚拟水贸易的对策和建议。

关键词: 农产品虚拟水流动, 适宜性评价, 指标体系, 投影寻踪模型

Abstract: To build an index system for suitability evaluation of crops virtual water flows in China, 18 indicators were selected respectively from agricultural production security system, support system and water security system. By using AHP and projection pursuit model, we calculated suitability degrees of crops virtual water flows of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China. It is shown that Jilin, Heilongjiang, Hunan, Shanghai and Beijing have higher suitability degree, while Ningxia and Xizang have lower suitability degree. According to the agricultural production security index, the 31 provinces are divided into two types, which are crops virtual water inflow regions and outflow regions. Then the two types were further clustered by ordered cluster method according to suitability degree. The result shows that most regions are in the middle suitability degree while a few in the two extremes. As for spatial distribution, the high suitability outflow areas are mainly located in Northeast China, the middle are mainly located in the south of North China and the Middle and Lower Yangtze Valley Plain, and the low include Xinjiang and Ningxia. High suitability inflow areas include large cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Northwest China, the middle are mainly the southeastern coastal areas, and the low are mainly located in Southwest China. Some suggestions are put forward as follows. Firstly, it is not feasible to consider suitability degree of crops virtual water flows in China from the perspective of water resources, because the key factor that affects crops virtual water flows in China is food security rather than water security, hence suitability evaluation should be done based on the security situation of agricultural production. Secondly, the domestic virtual water trade direction is difficult to change due to the mismatch between land and water resources in China. At the same time, importing virtual water from abroad is a difficult task due to the "great power effect". Therefore transferring water from the south to the north in China is an effective way to solve the problem water shortage in northern China. Meanwhile allocating water resources for agricultural production will give tremendous supports and make contributions to crops virtual water flows in China. It is certain that the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is a precondition for the implementation of "virtual water strategy", and virtual water strategy can not replace water transfer strategy. The combination of real water transfer and virtual water flow is the fundamental countermeasure to achieve food security and water security in China. In addition, some other suggestions are also discussed in this paper.

Key words: crops virtual water flows, suitability evaluation, index system, projection pursuit model