地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 635-644.doi: 10.11821/yj2011040006

• 环境与生态 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于动态环境CGE模型的乌梁素海流域氮磷分期调控策略

邓祥征1,2, 吴锋1, 林英志1, 杨军1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院农业政策研究中心,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2010-08-01 修回日期:2011-01-10 出版日期:2011-04-20 发布日期:2011-04-20
  • 作者简介:邓祥征(1971-),男,山东日照市人,博士,研究员,主要从事土地系统变化与效应、区域环境变化与政策研究。E-mail: dengxz.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家水科技重大专项(2009ZX07106-001-03、2009ZX07106-001-07)

Stage regulation measures of nitrogen and phosphorus in Wuliangsuhai catchments based on the dynamic environmental CGE model

DENG Xiang-zheng1,2, WU Feng1, LIN Ying-zhi1, YANG Jun1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and National Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Center for chinese Agricultural Policy, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2010-08-01 Revised:2011-01-10 Online:2011-04-20 Published:2011-04-20

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摘要： 氮、磷是湖泊富营养化的主导因子。为维持水资源的可持续发展,进行氮、磷削减势在必行,但此举势必会影响经济发展。为解决氮、磷削减与经济的矛盾关系,本文以乌梁素海流域为例,利用动态环境CGE模型,通过综合考虑技术进步、人口、经济增长与氮磷排放的关系,提出了氮磷分期调控策略。研究表明,近期(2010~2015),乌梁素海流域氮磷调控应以源头控制(主要是指工业)为主,并辅以提高种植业水、肥、药的利用效率来缩减农田面源污染的扩大;中期(2015~2020),通过推广各种卓有成效的治理手段,实现以点带面,达到综合治理成效;远期(2020~2030),强调稳定发展工农业,以环境优化经济为发展路线,构建可持续发展经济模式,实现经济增长与水环境稳步改善的双重目标。

关键词: 乌梁素海, CGE模型, 动态环境CGE模型, 湖泊富营养化

Abstract: Nitrogen and phosphorus as the dominant factors of lake eutrophication are the key to maintaining the aquatic ecosystem health, which mainly come from the human living and production process. It is imperative to reduce the nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients to maintain the harmonious relationship among human society, economy and water resources, which would have some influence on economic development. Therefore, it is the prerequisite for solving the contradiction between environment and economy to take measures suitable for the sustainable development of catchments. We analyzed the relationship between the emissions of nitrogen and phosphorus and the population growth and economic development in Wuliangsuhai catchments with the dynamic environment CGE model on the basis of the statistical data and environmental quality monitoring data in 2008, and put forward suggestions of nitrogen and phosphorus according to different stages. The result indicates that the regulation of nitrogen and phosphorus in Wuliangsuhai catchments should mainly focus on control of the industrial source as well as reduction of the increasing non-point source pollution from farmland by improving the efficiency of irrigation and utilization of fertilizer and pesticide in the short-term stage (2010-2015). In the medium-term (2015-2020) stage, it is necessary to take effective measures to realize the stage regulation of nitrogen and phosphorus; besides, it is also necessary to thrive to use the experience of one point to lead the whole area to realize the comprehensive regulation and provide the basis for the large-scale development of ecological agriculture and economic structure optimization during this period. In the long-term stage (2020-2030), aiming at the healthy development of aquatic ecosystem, the regulation should emphasize the stable development of industry and agriculture; and it is necessary to construct the sustainable economic pattern by taking the environment optimization economics as the development line to realize the dual goal of economic growth and steady improvement of water environment.

Key words: Wuliangsuhai catchment, CGE model, environmental CGE model, lake eutrophication