地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (6): 1137-1146.doi: 10.11821/yj2011060017

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

江淮平原水网区汛期雨量与洪涝水位关系——以江苏里下河腹部地区为例

叶正伟1,2, 许有鹏1, 潘光波1   

  1. 1. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210093;
    2. 淮阴师范学院城市与环境科学学院,江苏 223300
  • 收稿日期:2010-04-03 修回日期:2010-11-29 出版日期:2011-06-20 发布日期:2011-06-20
  • 作者简介:叶正伟(1973-),男,安徽黄山人,副教授,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源与洪涝灾害风险方面的研究。E-mail:leafyzw@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40730635、40571025,J0630535);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200701024,200901042);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2006133);高校博士点基金(2006084019)

Relationship between flood rainfall and water level in a Jianghuai Plain river network region: A case study in the inner Lixiahe, Jiangsu

YE Zheng-wei1,2, XU You-peng1, PAN Guang-bo1   

  1. 1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
    2. School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaiyin 223300, Jiangsu, China
  • Received:2010-04-03 Revised:2010-11-29 Online:2011-06-20 Published:2011-06-20

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摘要： 利用江苏里下河腹部地区8个雨量站和5个水位站1957~2006年的50年气象水文资料,采用Mann-Kendall方法检验面雨量变化趋势,并应用Pearson和Spearman方法揭示雨量同水位的相关关系。结果表明:近50年来汛期面雨量、单站雨量和时段雨量的长期变化都呈减小趋势。最大15日和最大3日雨量是水位变化的敏感性时段雨量,最大30日雨量与超警戒水位日数相关性较好,长时段雨量对水位变化的累积效应显著。近年来最大3日和最大15日雨量重现期增大是洪涝水位显著增高和超警戒水位日数增加的主要原因,且次暴雨强度越大,高洪涝水位出现的概率越大。里下河腹部地区水位在空间变化上具有较好的一致性,而在时间变化上则呈现阶段性特征。1950年代末到1970年代间,水位和超警戒水位日数均值都随面雨量减少而降低;但1980年代到1990年代间,水位和超警戒水位日数均值随面雨量减少反而上升;2000年以来的7年中,水位随面雨量减少而略有升高,但超警戒水位日数均值仍然随面雨量减少而略有减少。这种变化说明,除雨量因素外,人类活动和城镇化水文效应对水位的影响日趋显著,导致雨量与洪涝水位关系更为复杂。

关键词: 雨量, 汛期, 洪涝水位, 里下河, 江淮地区

Abstract: Based on the data of 8 precipitation stations and 5 hydrological stations from 1957 to 2006 in the inner Lixiahe region, trends of the rainfall are detected by the Mann-Kendall test, and the Pearson and Spearman methods are used to analyze the correlation of rainfall and water level. Results reveal that long-term Changes of areal rainfall and the rainfall at the single precipitation station as well as the maximum rainfall of a certain day in flood season show a decreasing but not significant trend in the period 1957-2006. Flood water level is sensitive to the maximum 3-day rainfall and maximum 15-day rainfall in the view of the flood mitigation, and the days of warning water level is in a good accordance to the maximum 30-day rainfall, and it is significant that rainfall in a longer period has a cumulate effect on flood water level. The recurrence interval of maximum 3-day rainfall and maximum 15-day rainfall have an increasing trend in recent years, which is the main reason for the increase in flood water level and the increase in the days of warning water level, and the higher intensity a single storm rainfall is, the larger probability the higher flood water level may have. The water level change in the inner Lixiahe region is consistent spatially while it changes in different phases temporally. The water level and the days of warning water level decrease with the decrease of the areal rainfall between the late 1950s and 1970s and increase with the increase of the areal rainfall between the 1980s and 1990s, and the water level increases with the decrease of the areal rainfall while the days of warning water level decreases slightly in the first 7 years of the 21st century. The relationship between the rainfall and the flood water level indicates that negative hydrological effect of human activities and the change of the earth surface due to the urbanization process have an increasingly significant impact on the flood risk besides the rainfall, which makes the relationship between rainfall and flood water level more complicated.

Key words: rainfall, flood season, flood water level, inner Lixiahe, Jianghuai Plain