关键词: 快速城市化, 城市建设用地规模, 用地预测, 齐普夫模型, 目标导向

Abstract: In the ongoing great-leap-forward rush of many cities, there are seemingly paradoxical co-existence of lags of urbanization and waste of land. It is not acceptable whether to take laisser-faire attitudes and make loose limitations of urban sprawl with connivance or to follow the prescribed order of urbanization without the consideration of requirements of rapid development and regional equity of cities in disadvantaged provinces, which makes it in urgent needs to find a simple and practical method which is adapted to the forecast of the urban land use size in a nonlinear process of urbanization. However, the direct and mediate methods in the mainstream of current researches on forecast of appropriate land use for urban construction cannot resolve this problem very well in great-leap-forward development of many cities, inevitably making the expansion of these cities out of order and control from central level invalid. We argued that it is required not only to improve the forecast method but also to renew the way of resolution. In furtherance of this purpose, this paper tries to explore a new multi-scalar forecasting method based on a preset goal of urbanization level from the perspective of urban system from an aim-oriented rather than a trend-extropolation perspective. This process includes three steps, first forecast the total population at the higher scale of the target city, then predict the future urban population based on the prospective urban system, at last, determine the quantity of proper urban land use through the correlation between urban land use and population. Using the data of 287 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 1997 to 2008, the basic hypothesis is tested and some panel data models on built-up areas and nonagricultural populations are built. To eliminate the autocorrelations and heteroscedastcity in the models, some advanced methods of estimation such as GLS are introduced and an ideal empirical equation is obtained. Although there are still some defects and limitations of this equation, it has been proved that this model is easy-to-use, reasonable and practical in the case of Zhumadian. It is also argued that this method is not only suitable for the forecast of land use of many cities in current China, but also can avoid the problem of many land use forecasts that it always goes beyond the permissible land use limit at the higher scale when adding up the predicted land use of every city. To conclude, the theoretical meaning and application restrictions of this method are briefly summarized.

Key words: rapid urbanization, urban land use, forecast of land use size, Zipf model, goal-oriented