地理研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 1237-1243.doi: 10.11821/yj2011070009

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

站点密度对泥石流当日雨量和前期有效雨量计算的影响

张国平, 晁瑗, 许凤雯, 赵琳娜   

  1. 中国气象局公共气象服务中心, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2010-08-02 修回日期:2010-11-29 出版日期:2011-07-20 发布日期:2011-07-20
  • 作者简介:张国平(1974-), 男,宁夏永宁人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事气象条件引发地貌过程和环境灾害的分析和预报工作。 E-mail: zhanggp@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(40971016);2007年公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)2007-6-37)

The influence of gauge density on the interpolation of critical and antecedent effective precipitation that triggered the debris flow

ZHANG Guo-ping, CHAO Yuan, XU Feng-wen, ZHAO Lin-na   

  1. Public Weather Service Center of CMA, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2010-08-02 Revised:2010-11-29 Online:2011-07-20 Published:2011-07-20

摘要: 研究气象站点密度在当日雨量和前期有效雨量因子内插中的影响程度,对提高对这2个因子的内插精度有重要的意义。本文针对我国东南地区87个泥石流灾害点和207个站点的降水资料,建立站点密度在5%~100%间变化的空间采样方案,采用反距离加权法(IDW)计算不同站点密度下泥石流灾害点的当日雨量和前期有效雨量。利用分位数方法对站点密度与当日雨量和前期有效雨量的关系进行分析,结果表明:诱发泥石流灾害的当日雨量和前期有效雨量的内插值,均随着气象站点密度的降低呈减少趋势;前期有效雨量的内插值相对于当日雨量的内插要稳定一些。在站点密度大于5%的情况下内插的前期有效雨量可以保持60%以上的雨量值,而当日雨量只大于30%。

关键词: 气象站点密度, 降水内插, 泥石流, 前期有效雨量, 当日雨量

Abstract: It is important to understand the effect of the rain gauge density on the interpolation of effective antecedent precipitation and critical rainfall. For the 87 debris flow sites, the interpolation rainfall is calculated based on 5%-100% variational sampling scheme of 207 rain gauge stations. The inverse distance weight method is used to interpolate the effective antecedent precipitation and critical rainfall. Using the quantiles method, the relationship between the gauge density and the interpolation rainfall of the day debris flow and the effective antecedent precipitation is analyzed. The result shows the interpolation rainfall is exponentially decreasing due to the decrease of the gauge density. The interpolation of the effective antecedent precipitation is more stable and needs smaller amount of gauge with the same precision than that of the critical precipitation. When the gauge density is less than 5%, the interpolation of the effective antecedent precipitation keeps the real value beyond 60%, otherwise the critical rainfall is under 30%.

Key words: gauge density, precipitation interpolation, debris flow, antecedent effective precipitation, critical precipitation