地理研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 1499-1507.doi: 10.11821/yj2011080015

• 城市与乡村 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市化速度曲线及其政策启示——对诺瑟姆曲线的讨论与发展

陈明星1,2, 叶超3, 周义4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101;
    3. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210046;
    4. 南京大学国际地球系统科学研究所,南京 210093
  • 收稿日期:2010-11-29 修回日期:2011-03-21 出版日期:2011-08-20 发布日期:2011-08-20
  • 作者简介:陈明星(1982-),男,安徽巢湖人,博士,助理研究员,研究方向为城市化与区域发展。 E-mail:chenmx@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41001080,41001092,40971076)

Urbanization rate and its policy implications: Discussion and development of Northam's curve

CHEN Ming-xing1,2, YE Chao3, ZHOU Yi4   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. College of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China;
    4. Insititue for Earth Systern Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • Received:2010-11-29 Revised:2011-03-21 Online:2011-08-20 Published:2011-08-20

摘要: 诺瑟姆提出的城市化S形曲线是城市地理学的经典理论成果,对它在中国的应用却存在曲解。根据诺瑟姆原文,不是所有国家的城市化水平都能达到100%,城市化水平在30%到70%之间也不是一直处于加速状态;进而推导出城市化速度变化的四阶段倒"U"形曲线:孕育阶段、加速阶段、减速阶段、趋零阶段。其政策含义和启示在于:城市化速度变化有其规律,不能拔苗助长;中国已经迈过城市化速度的拐点,加速城市化不应是长期的主旋律;城市化依然是主要发展方向和趋势;中国城市化理念与重点均需转型;城市化与包容性增长、城乡统筹和农民工市民化是"十二五"时期的主要任务。

关键词: 城市化, 诺瑟姆曲线, 倒", U", 形速度曲线, 政策启示

Abstract: Northam's curve of urbanization shaping "S" is one of the most important classical theories in urban geography. For common misreading about Northam's curve, this paper compiled original theory contents. The results indicated that the urbanization level can not reach 100% in all the countries; and the urbanization process between 30% and 70% is not always in a state of acceleration. Urbanization rate curve was put forward, which is shaped by an inverted "U". The evolution of urbanization rate was identified into four stages: embryonic stage, acceleration stage, deceleration stage, approaches zero stage. In different stages the changes have different characteristics. There are five important inspirations for policies: first, the urbanization rate of change has its laws, and cannot pluck up a crop to help it grow; second, China has crossed the turning point, "accelerated urbanization" should not be the main theme of the national long-term development strategy; third, China should maintain the steady development orientation for urbanization; fourth, China's urban concept and focus should be in transition; fifth, urbanization, inclusive growth, coordinating urban-rural development, as well as migrant labors becoming city and town dwellers are the primary targets during "the 12th Five-Year Plan" period.

Key words: urbanization, Northam's curve, inverted "U"-shaped rate curve, policy implications