地理研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (11): 2059-2066.doi: 10.11821/yj2011110012

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑河中上游气象要素单调变化趋势分析

李占玲, 王小娟   

  1. 中国地质大学(北京) 水资源与环境学院, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2011-01-13 修回日期:2011-05-28 出版日期:2011-11-20 发布日期:2011-11-20
  • 通讯作者: 李占玲(1980-),女,讲师,博士,从事水文学及水资源研究。E-mail:zhanling.li@cugb.edu.cn E-mail:zhanling.li@cugb.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2010ZY13)

Shift trend analysis of meteorological time series in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River Basin

LI Zhan-ling, WANG Xiao-juan   

  1. School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2011-01-13 Revised:2011-05-28 Online:2011-11-20 Published:2011-11-20

摘要: 分析水文气象要素的长期变化趋势,对于理解气候变化和人类活动对水文过程的影响起着重要的指导和启示作用。本文采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法对黑河中上游分布均匀的8个气象站点5个气象要素的长期变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:各个站点的多年年平均气温、日最高气温及日最低气温均呈现显著的上升趋势;对于多年年降水量序列,只有托勒站在0.1显著性水平下呈现增加趋势,其余站点年降水量序列的增加或减少趋势不显著;对于多年年日照时数,只有山丹站在0.05的显著性水平下呈减少趋势。这些气象要素的变化是气候变暖、各种尺度天气系统、局地水循环、人类活动等多种因素共同作用和影响的结果。

关键词: 黑河, Mann-Kendall, 长时间序列, 趋势

Abstract: Identification of trends in long term time series of hydro-meteorological variables is an important topic for better understanding the effects of climate change and human activity on hydrological processes. In this study, data from five meteorological variables at eight stations in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River Basin were analysed and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to investigate their trends over the past years. It was found that on the annual scale, time series of average temperature, daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures at all selected stations presented remarkable increasing trends at the significance level of 0.01 (or 0.05, 0.001). Only annual precipitation time series at Tuole station showed a remarkable increasing trend at the 0.1 significance level and only sunshine hour time series at Shandan station showed a decreasing trend at the 0.05 significance level. All these trends were correlated with factors such as global especially regional climatic change, weather systems at different spatial scales, local environment and human activities.

Key words: Heihe River Basin, Mann-Kendall, long time series, shift trend analysis