地理研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 234-244.doi: 10.11821/yj2012020004

• 经济与区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

改革开放以来中国社会消费水平的区域格局变化

管卫华, 周静, 陆玉麒   

  1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院, 南京 210046
  • 收稿日期:2011-04-15 修回日期:2011-08-05 出版日期:2012-02-20 发布日期:2012-02-20
  • 作者简介:管卫华(1970- ),男,江苏如皋人,博士,副教授,研究方向为城市与区域经济地理。E-mail:guanweihua@njnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(40771075);江苏省软科学项目(BR2009034);江苏省高校自然科学基础研究项目(08KJD170004);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(11KJB170003)

Study on the regional pattern change of social consumption levels in China since the reform and opening up

GUAN Wei-hua, ZHOU Jing, LU Yu-qi   

  1. School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
  • Received:2011-04-15 Revised:2011-08-05 Online:2012-02-20 Published:2012-02-20

摘要: 通过对改革开放以来中国区域社会消费水平差异、格局变化和形成机制的研究,表明改革开放以来省区间的社会消费水平的差异总体呈现扩大趋势,但其中有一定的波动。通过突变点分析,认为改革开放以来中国区域社会消费水平差异变化可划分为1978~1987年和1987~2008年两个阶段。1978年中国社会消费水平的南北区域差异格局显著;1987年中国社会消费水平的区域差异既有南北地区的差异,又有东西部的差异;2008年中国社会消费水平总体呈现明显的东中西阶梯差异的格局。1978年形成中国社会消费水平区域格局主要受各地区城乡居民人均储蓄、人均财政支出和第一产业产值比例因素的影响;1987年形成中国社会消费水平区域格局主要受人均GDP、交通通达水平和第三产业产值比例因素的影响;2008年形成中国社会消费水平区域格局主要受人均GDP、城乡居民人均收入和城乡居民人均储蓄因素的影响。

关键词: 社会消费水平, 区域格局变化, Mann-Kendall方法, 机制, 中国

Abstract: Since the reform and opening up started in 1978,with the establishment and improvement of socialist market economy and the rapid development of commodity circulation in China,the scale of social consumption has been greatly improved.At the same time,some things are changing,such as the regional differences of consumption levels and the regional consumption patterns which results from the differences.In this paper,we firstly analyze the differences of social consumption levels between provinces in China since the reform and opening up based on the variation coefficient and Taylor's index and indicate that since 1978,the difference of social consumption levels between provinces in China in general presents widening trend,but there are some fluctuations.By the analysis of change-point based on Mann-Kendall method,since reform and opening up the differences' changes of social consumption levels in China can be divided into two phases,from 1978 to 1987 and from 1987 to 2008.Using the cluster and discriminate analysis methods,we compare the regional patterns of social consumption levels in China in 1978,1987 and 2008.The results are as follows: in 1978,the social consumption levels in China had prominent north-south regional difference;in 1987,the social consumption level in China not only had north-south difference but also had east-west difference;in 2008,the social consumption level in China in general presents east-middle-west differences in the pattern of ladder.We can find that the regional pattern of social consumption level has been shifted from north-south difference to east-west difference.Finally,we study such indexes which are in connection with the regional social consumption level as the population,economic development level,and investment in fixed assets,income level,savings,financial levels,traffic convenience and industrial structure.By stepwise regression analysis,we analyze the formation mechanism of regional consumption patterns in China in 1978,1987 and 2008.The results are as follows: in 1978,regional pattern of social consumption level was mainly affected by per capita savings of urban and rural residents,per capita expenditure and the proportion of primary industry output value;in 1987,it was mainly affected by per capita GDP,transport accessibility levels and the proportion of tertiary industry output value;in 2008,it was mainly affected by per capita GDP,per capita income and per capita savings of urban and rural residents.

Key words: social consumption level, regional pattern change, Mann-Kendall method, mechanism, China