地理研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 409-416.doi: 10.11821/yj2012030003

• 水文与水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

挠力河流域河流径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析

姚允龙1,2, 王蕾3, 吕宪国2, 于洪贤1   

  1. 1. 东北林业大学, 哈尔滨 150040;
    2. 中国科学院湿地生态与环境重点实验室, 长春 130012;
    3. 黑龙江科技学院建筑工程学院, 哈尔滨 150027
  • 收稿日期:2011-08-22 修回日期:2011-12-10 出版日期:2012-03-20 发布日期:2012-03-20
  • 通讯作者: 吕宪国(1957- ),男,吉林长春人,研究员,博士生导师。主要从事湿地变化及其环境效应方面的研究。E-mail:luxg@neigae.ac.cn E-mail:luxg@neigae.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:姚允龙(1982- ),男,山东蒙阴人,博士,讲师,主要从事湿地与气候变化方面的研究。E-mail:yl.yao@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DL10BA01);中国科学院湿地生态与环境重点实验室开放基金资助项目(WELF-2009-B-001);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(40830535);国家自然科学基金(41104477)

Assessing the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in Naoli River watershed,Northeast China

YAO Yun-long1,2, WANG Lei3, LU Xian-guo2, YU Hong-xian1   

  1. 1. Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China;
    3. College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Heilongjiang Institute of Science and Technology, Harbin 150027, China
  • Received:2011-08-22 Revised:2011-12-10 Online:2012-03-20 Published:2012-03-20

摘要: 流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析是理解气候变化对流域水资源影响的重要手段。本文利用非更新式人工神经网络(ANN)模型,以年平均降雨、年最低气温和最高气温为输入参数,年平均径流量为输出变量,构建了三江平原挠力河流域的径流量预测ANN模型;并根据IPCC第四次报告的气候变化模式,设定了9种不同的气候变化情景,利用构建的ANN模型分析了流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:构建的人工神经网络模型能够较好的模拟径流量,可用于气候变化的敏感性分析;挠力河流域上游径流量对气候变化的敏感性要大于中游区域的,降水变化对径流量的影响大于气温对其产生的影响。

关键词: 农业流域, 径流量, 气候变化, 敏感性分析, 沼泽湿地

Abstract: Planning for potential future changes in water yield requires an understanding not only of possible climatic changes but also how a catchment hydrology might respond to such changes.Understanding catchment responsiveness,the sensitivity of catchment stream flow to changes in climatic conditions,was a useful method to examine the impacts of climate change on water resources in a watershed.In this paper,the artificial neural network(ANN) model of Naoli River watershed was constructed to assess the sensitivity of runoff to different climatic conditions.The model took the annual mean rainfall,annual minimum temperature and maximum temperature as the input parameters,and the annual mean runoff as the output parameter.The accuracy of the model was also assessed based on the statistical methods.According to the fourth reports of IPCC,we assumed nine climate change scenarios.Under the scenarios,the sensitivity of runoff to climatic condition was assessed.The results showed that: the constructed ANN model could better simulate runoff,and it could be used for sensitivity analysis of climate change;the runoff in the upper reaches of the watershed was more sensitive than that in the middle reaches,and the runoff was more sensitive to the rainfall than to the temperature.The artificial neural network(ANN) model is a simple method used to analyze the sensitivity of runoff to climatic conditions,but this method does not place emphasis on the spatial variation in runoff sensitivity.

Key words: Naoli River watershed, runoff, climatic condition, sensitivity analysis, marshland