地理研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 589-596.doi: 10.11821/yj2012040002

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

CMIP3气候模式对北疆气候变化模拟评估及未来情景预估

陶辉1, 白云岗2, 毛炜峄3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室, 南京 210008;
    2. 新疆水利水电科学研究院, 乌鲁木齐 830049;
    3. 新疆气候中心, 乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 收稿日期:2011-04-23 修回日期:2011-11-15 出版日期:2012-04-20 发布日期:2012-04-20
  • 作者简介:陶辉(1981- ),男,新疆昌吉人,博士,主要从事气候变化对水资源影响研究。E-mail:taohui0911@yahoo.com.cn
  • 基金资助:

    水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金;国家自然科学基金(41101023);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001066);湖泊与环境国家重点实验室开放基金联合资助

Assessment of CMIP3 climate models and projected climate changes in northern Xinjiang

TAO Hui1, BAI Yun-gang2, MAO Wei-yi3   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China;
    2. Xinjiang Academy of Water Resource and Hydropower, Urmuqi 830049, China;
    3. Xinjiang Climate Center, Urumqi 830002, China
  • Received:2011-04-23 Revised:2011-11-15 Online:2012-04-20 Published:2012-04-20

摘要: 利用北疆地区1961~2000年气温、降水观测数据和CMIP3(phase 3of the CoupledModel Inter-comparison Project)提供的20个海气耦合模式在该地区的模拟结果,评估了各气候模式对北疆地区降水、气温的模拟效果。结果表明:各气候模式对气温、降水模拟效果差异较大。从对气候平均态的模拟来看,有5个模式对降水的模拟相对较好,2个模式对气温的模拟相对较好;所有模式均能模拟出气温的年内变化特征,其中MPI_ECHAM5模式结果与观测数据结果最为接近;但各模式对降水的模拟效果均较差。在月尺度上,一些模式结果与降水观测数据呈负相关性,但对于月气温,大多数模式与其相关性较好,且各模式间月气温均方根误差变化幅度相对较小。综合来看,大部分气候模式在该地区模拟能力比中国东部地区要弱;气候模式的降水数据包括多模式集合数据还不适合用于未来北疆地区降水变化预估分析。最后,采用累计分布函数法(CDFS)仅对北疆地区2011~2050年时段的气温进行偏差校正与预估分析,结果表明未来40年北疆地区气温在三种排放情景下均呈上升趋势。

关键词: 气温, 降水, 北疆地区, 气候模式, 预估

Abstract: Based on the observed precipitation and temperature data of 44 meteorological stations for the period 1961-2000 in northern Xinjiang(Beijiang),the projected changes of precipitation and temperature in this region in the 20th century of 20 models from the CMIP3(phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project) dataset are evaluated.The results show that large differences can be found in the simulations of precipitation and temperature.For the climate mean state,there are 5 models with better results in temperature,namely,the GISS_E_R model,GISS_E_H model,NCAR_PCM model,UKMO_HADCM model and MRI_CGCM2 model,and 2 models with better results in precipitation.On annual scale,the amplitudes of most models are bigger than observed data,all the models can reproduce the annual cycle of the temperature,and the MPI_ECHAM5 model is superior to the remaining models.The annual cycle of precipitation is poorly captured by all the models.On monthly scale,most models show a relatively high correlation coefficient with the observed data,but in terms of precipitation,some models show a negative correlation coefficient,and the amplitude of Root Mean Square Error of each model is relatively small in the monthly temperature.In conclusion,the simulations of temperature are much better than those of precipitation by climate models.Finally,the MPI_ECHAM5 model is selected to project the temperatures of northern Xinjiang region for the period 2011-2050,and the result shows that temperature will increase consistently under the three emission scenarios.

Key words: temperature, precipitation, climate models, projection, northern Xinjiang