地理研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 1016-1028.doi: 10.11821/yj2012060005

• 土地资源与利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于CLUE模型的2030年江西省土地利用变化情景分析

郭延凤1,2, 于秀波1, 姜鲁光1, 查良松2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 生态网络观测与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101;
    2. 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院 芜湖 214003
  • 收稿日期:2011-08-15 修回日期:2012-01-13 出版日期:2012-06-20 发布日期:2012-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 于秀波(1965- ),男,山东枣庄人,研究员,从事生态系统服务评估、湿地与流域管理等研究.yuxb@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:yuxb@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:郭延凤(1983- ),女,安徽六安人,硕士,从事模型设计与GIS应用研究.E-mail:gyf2242735@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2009CB421106)

Scenarios analysis of land use change based on CLUE model in Jiangxi Province by 2030

GUO Yan-feng1,2, YU Xiu-bo1, JIANG Lu-guang1, ZHA Liang-song2   

  1. 1. Key Lab of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241003, Anhui, China
  • Received:2011-08-15 Revised:2012-01-13 Online:2012-06-20 Published:2012-06-20

摘要: 引入“一切照常情景”、“规划情景"和”优化情景"三种生态系统变化情景,采用CLUE模型,对江西省2001~2030年的土地利用空间变化进行模型模拟,并用2005年的土地利用现状图对模拟结果进行了验证。研究表明:在“一切照常情景”中,耕地持续减少;建设用地急剧增加;林地面积基本保持稳定。在“规划情景”中,耕地持续增加;建设用地略有增加,并在2020年后基本保持不变;林地总面积变化不大,但是高密度森林面积比重增大;河流和湖泊面积略微减少,湿地面积大幅增加。在“优化情景”中,森林增加趋势较“规划情景”有所减缓,河流和湖泊,湿地均有显著增加。本研究对研究区今后的土地利用规划修编和土地可持续性管理具有重要的指导意义。

关键词: CLUE模型, 土地利用变化, 情景分析, 江西省

Abstract: Using CLUE(The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects)model based on GIS spatial analysis and statistics,this paper introduced three scenarios("Business as Usual Scenario","Planned Scenario"and"Optimal Scenario")to simulate the land use spatial change in Jiangxi Province from 2001 to 2030.The paper has developed three scenarios on land use change to conduct a comparative analysis.Scenarios provide an effective tool to assess the risks of current land use patterns and the policy options,and offer more comprehensive and meaningful scientific information to policy-makers from different approaches by taking various factors into account.As a result,scenario analysis plays a critical role in this study,where nine types of land use are identified to show what might take place under different scenarios.This model is applied to simulate the future land use scenarios in the next three decades,and to validate the simulated results with the land use map in 2005.The validation suggests that the model has accurately positioned the simulated results to an appropriate spatial location.The results are shown as follows.(1)"Business as Usual Scenario".The arable lands continue to decline,and lands for construction purposes increase sharply,while forested land areas remain stable.(2)"Planned Scenario".The arable lands continue to grow,and lands for construction purposes increase slightly and remain unchanged in 2020;forested land areas show a slight change,and high-density forest areas grow;the areas of rivers and lakes decrease marginally;while the areas of marshes and peat lands grow rapidly.(3) "Optimal Scenario".The forest areas grow relatively slowly than that under"Planned Scenario";while all the areas of rivers and lakes,marshes and peat lands increase significantly.The study also suggests that the CLUE model is very powerful in predicting the future land use change,and the land use changes under different scenarios vary greatly in spatial distribution.The results are expected to provide reference for future development and revision of land use planning,as well as for sustainable land management in the study area.

Key words: CLUE model, land use change, scenario analysis, Jiangxi Province