地理研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 767-775.doi: 10.11821/yj2013040019

• 区域经济地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

道路交通节能减排途径与潜力分析

高菠阳1, 刘卫东2   

  1. 1. 中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院城市与房地产管理系, 北京100081;
    2. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-10 修回日期:2012-11-15 出版日期:2013-04-10 发布日期:2013-04-10
  • 作者简介:高菠阳(1984- ),女,吉林长春人,博士,讲师,主要从事城市与区域发展研究。E-mail:cufegaoboyang@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑计划专题(2011BAJ07B01-2)

Emissions reduction potential analysis of road transportation

GAO Boyang1, LIU Weidong2   

  1. 1. School of Management Science and Engeneering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing
  • Received:2012-04-10 Revised:2012-11-15 Online:2013-04-10 Published:2013-04-10

摘要: 交通运输行业是仅次于制造业的第二大油品消耗行业,也是实现低碳生活发展路径的重点行业。基于交通运输部门碳排放量现状分析,本文提出了优先发展公共交通、鼓励发展小排量汽车、降低机动车单耗、控制排放物标准等四种挖潜减排途径,并利用排放量估算和情景分析相结合的方法,对我国道路交通减排潜力进行了预测。按照高中低度三种减排情景发展,测算出2015年及2020年减排量,为实现至2020年我国碳排放较2005年下降40%~45%的目标提供科学基础。研究认为:2010-2020年是中国交通运输行业高速发展阶段,要满足能源安全和温室气体减排要求,我国需要实施更严格的产业和环境政策,若强化低碳情景模式,则2015年、2020年的碳排减少量分别约为2183万t、7148万t,达到我国道路交通部门的最大减排潜力。

关键词: 道路交通, 节能减排, 低碳潜力, 中国

Abstract: At the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, China announced its target of CO2 emission reduction, that is, by 2020 the amount of CO2 emission per output unit will drop by 40%~45% compared to that in 2005. The target will be incorporated into China's long term socio-economic planning. Globally, the transport sector is the largest source of CO2 emissions. Exploring road transportation energy consumption and the abatement opportunities for road transportation is of great significance for low-carbon economy research, and also for the emission reduction target. Based on the existing literature and research, in this article, we outline four major potential ways of emissions reduction on road transportation, which are: (1) give priority to the development of public transportation; (2) give priority to the development of small output volume automobiles; (3) reduce the automobile energy consumption per kilometer; (4) strictly control the automobile pollutant emission standard. With these four potential ways, the article uses the emission calculation model and scenario analysis method to estimate the reduction potential of road transportation carbon emission in 2015 and 2020. Calculation results show that: under low, middle and high scenarios, China will reduce the CO2 emission by 21.83, 18.91 and 18.81 million tons in 2015 respectively. Up to 2020, the emission amount will achieve 71.48, 55.45, and 40.55 million tons respectively. Lastly, according to the development reality of China, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations in relation to emission reduction of road transportation on the basis of the above findings.

Key words: road transportation, emission reduction, low-carbon potential, China