地理研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 1121-1131.doi: 10.11821/yj2013060016

• 交通与区域经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

土地出让价格信号引起的房价变化时空扩散效应

任超群1,2, 顾杰3, 张娟锋4, 贾生华1   

  1. 1. 浙江大学管理学院, 杭州310027;
    2. 新加坡国立大学房地产研究所, 新加坡119613;
    3. 浙江工商大学公共管理学院, 杭州310018;
    4. 浙江工业大学经贸管理学院, 杭州310014
  • 收稿日期:2012-07-25 修回日期:2013-02-04 出版日期:2013-06-10 发布日期:2013-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 顾杰(1978- ),女,浙江人,博士,副教授。E-mail:zjugujie@163.com
  • 作者简介:任超群(1985- ),女,浙江台州人,博士,主要从事土地经济学和城市经济学研究。E-mail:chaoqunren@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家社科基金项目(10CJY020);教育部人文社科基金项目(11YJC630049);浙江省自然基金项目(Y6110430)

The spatial and temporal diffusion of housing price dynamics induced by land price signal

REN Chaoqun1,2, GU Jie3, ZHANG Juanfeng4, JIA Shenghua1   

  1. 1. School of Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China;
    2. Institute of Real Estate Studies, National University of Singapore, 119613, Singapore;
    3. Public Administration College, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China;
    4. College of Economics and Management, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310014, China
  • Received:2012-07-25 Revised:2013-02-04 Online:2013-06-10 Published:2013-06-10

摘要: 从信号传递角度出发,研究土地出让事件冲击带来的房价变化在时间和空间上的扩散效应。利用杭州2006年1月-2010年3月177宗住宅用地成交数据和251个新建商品住宅楼盘交易数据,借助GIS相关软件展开实证研究,结果发现:①土地出让价格信号引起房价的变化,对房价的影响具有“不对称性”;②房价变化以出让地块为中心往外扩散,呈现“波纹效应”;③房价变化具有“持续性”,土地出让价格信号对房价的影响持续四个月,影响范围达3 km以上;④房价波动强度随时间推移和空间延伸不断渐弱。对此,政府应尽量保持地价平稳,规避地价信号所产生的市场波动风险。

关键词: 土地出让, 价格信号, 房价, 扩散

Abstract: High housing price is a social concern and an important government macro-control point.Based on the signal transfer theory,this paper researches the diffusion pattern of housing price dynamics induced by land price signal spatially and temporally.By using auction data of 177 land projects and sale data of 251 residential house projects in Hangzhou from January 2006 to March 2010,this paper uses geographic information system software and finds out that:(1)Land price signal causes housing price move and the effect is asymmetry;(2)Housing price dynamics diffuses from the auctioned land to the outer round which shows a ripple effect;(3)Housing price change is a consecutive process.The influence of land price signal on housing price lasts for four months and extends to 3 km away from the auctioned land;(4)Housing price fluctuation becomes weaker and weaker as the time goes on and the distances goes farther.It is suggested that the local government should avoid the shock of land price signals on housing.

Key words: land sale, price signal, housing price, diffuse