地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2008, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 343-352.doi: 10.11821/yj2008020012

• 水文与水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

新安江模型参数的不确定性分析

舒 畅1,5, 刘苏峡1,6, 莫兴国2, 梁忠民3, 戴 东4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态网络观测与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    3. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京 210098;
    4. 黄河水利委员会水文局,郑州 450004;
    5. 中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049;
    6. 中国气象局国家气象中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2007-06-09 修回日期:2007-11-23 出版日期:2008-03-25 发布日期:2008-03-25
  • 作者简介:舒畅(1983-),男,浙江金华人,博士研究生。从事水文水资源和水文模型研究。 E-MAIL:shuchang6666@163.com *通讯作者 : 刘苏峡(1965-),女,湖北黄陂人,副研究员,博士。主要从事流域水文模拟和界面水文过程研究。E-MAIL:liusx@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(40671032,40671033);中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF2006-30);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所创新三期领域前沿课题

Uncertainty analysis of Xinanjiang model parameter

SHU Chang1,5, LIU Su-xia1,6, MO Xing-guo2, LIANG Zhong-min3, DAI Dong4   

  1. 1. Key Lab of Water Cycle &|Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Key Lab of Ecological Net Observation and Modeling, IGSNRR, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098,China;
    4. Bureau of Hydrology, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450004, China;
    5. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049, China;
    6. National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2007-06-09 Revised:2007-11-23 Online:2008-03-25 Published:2008-03-25
  • Supported by:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(40671032,40671033);中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF2006-30);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所创新三期领域前沿课题

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摘要：

水文模型的不确定性研究是水文科学研究的重要课题。模型参数的不确定性分析是水文模型不确定性研究的重要内容之一。本文采用GLUE方法分析新安江模型参数的不确定性,结论基于对不同水文特征流域的长时间径流模拟,研究发现大量"等效性"参数组存在。据此将参数总结为三类:第一类为非敏感参数,如上层张力水容量UM等。它们对似然判据,及确定性系数(R2)影响小。第二类为敏感性参数,如河网蓄水消退系数CS等,其特点是对R2的影响大。第三类为区域性敏感参数,如张力水蓄水容量曲线的方次B等,它们对R2的影响力跟流域特征密切相关。这些结论有助于理解新安江模型参数,为今后流域水文模拟提供参考。文中还展望了未来水文模型不确定性研究的发展方向。

关键词: GLUE方法, 新安江模型, 等效性, 不确定性, 卢氏流域, 九洲流域

Abstract:

The uncertainty problem in hydrological model is an important issue of scientific research at present, which covers three aspects of data, model structure and parameters.Parameter is one of the key roles in analyzing model uncertainty problem. The value of parameters depends on characteristics of a basin, but in fact it is difficult to obtain because there are few observation stations. In general, it needs to confirm parameters by several calibration methods including Genetic Algorithm, Simulated Annerling and Artificial Neural Network. So there exists parameter uncertainty problem. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology is an effective approach to study uncertainty of parameters. In this paper, the uncertainty in Xinanjiang model is examined by employing GLUE. Based on the simulation results of daily data from Jiuzhou(1978~1987) and Lushi(1980~1988) basins, it is found that the phenomenon of "equifinality" exists among parameters groups for both of the basins. According to comparison result of scatter plots, parameters of Xinanjiang model can be classified into three groups: sensitivity parameters such as UM, EX; non-sensitivity parameters such as KC, CS and regional sensitivity parameters such as B, WM. The conclusion is favorable for understanding parameters of Xinanjiang model so as to provide valuable scientific information for simulating hydrological processes. Finally it puts forward the main contents on future uncertainties research in hydrological modeling.

Key words: GLUE methodology, Xinanjiang model, equifinality, uncertainty, Lushi basin, Jiuzhou basin