地理研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 842-852.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201405004

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国能源供给安全综合评价及障碍因素分析

薛静静1,2, 沈镭1, 刘立涛1, 高天明1,2, 陈枫楠1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院大学, 北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2013-03-20 修回日期:2013-09-28 出版日期:2014-05-10 发布日期:2014-05-10
  • 通讯作者: 沈镭(1964- ),男,湖北麻城人,研究员、博导,中国自然资源学会秘书长。E-mail:shenl@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:shenl@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:薛静静(1986- ),女,山东省聊城人,博士生,主要研究方向为能源经济与政策研究。E-mail:xuejj.11b@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41271547);中国科学院先导项目(XDA05010400)

Energy supply security assessment of China and the influencing factors based on set pair analysis

XUE Jingjing1,2, SHEN Lei1, LIU Litao1, GAO Tianming1,2, CHEN Fengnan1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2013-03-20 Revised:2013-09-28 Online:2014-05-10 Published:2014-05-10

摘要: 作为能源生产和消费大国,中国的能源供给安全问题一直备受关注,甚至有一些别有用心的国际机构大肆宣扬“中国能源威胁论”。针对中国能源供给存在的实际突出问题,开展能源供给安全综合评价研究,有助于深刻认识中国能源供给安全形势,找出中国能源供给安全的主要影响因子和强化政策保障。从能源供给安全的概念出发,构建中国能源供给安全综合评价指标体系,基于集对分析方法构建能源供给安全评估模型,借鉴指标评价标准模型建立指标评价标准值,运用熵值法确定各评价指标的权重,对近年来中国能源供给安全的等级、演变特征及主要影响因素进行了深入分析。研究结果表明:2000-2008 年中国能源供给安全评价等级为III,2009 年和2011 年上升为I 级,2010 年为II 级。中国能源供给安全指数与最优评价集I 的联系度由2000 年的-0.46 增至2011 年的0.23,呈波动上升趋势。中国能源供给安全影响因素分析显示,能源产品价格指数和能源加工转换效率是第一位的影响因素,在各年份的出现频率达到91.67%,其次为可再生能源所占比重和储采比,出现频率达到83.33%。

关键词: 能源供给安全, 集对分析, 评价标准, 障碍度, 中国

Abstract: As a large energy production and consumption country, China's energy supply security issues have attracted much concern. Even some international organizations which have ulterior motives heavily hype "China energy threat". For the actual outstanding problems of China's energy supply, we need to carry out a comprehensive evaluation of the energy supply security. It helps to make a profound understanding of China's energy supply security situation and identify the major obstacle factors. And based on this we could strengthen policy protection. According to the concept of energy supply security, the paper built comprehensive evaluation index system of energy supply security, the assessment model and indicators evaluation criterion model based on set pair analysis method. The entropy method was applied to determine the index weights. And the level of energy supply security, the evolution feature and the main obstacle factors in recent years were profoundly analyzed. The results of the research show that from 2000 to 2008 China's energy supply security level is III, it rises to II in 2010 and I in 2009 and 2011. The relation degree between China's energy supply security exponent and optimal evaluation set I rises with fluctuations, increasing from-0.46 in 2000 to 0.23 in 2011. The obstacle factors analysis of China's energy supply security shows that the price index of energy products and energy processing and conversion efficiency are the top two obstacle factors, whose occurrence frequency reach to 91.67%, followed by the renewable energy share and the reserve-production ratio reaching to 83.33%. In recent years, China's energy consumption continuously increased, while the energy supply security level improved rather than fall, which is inseparable from the implementation of positive energy policy. Based on domestic resources advantages and development base, enhancing the energy supply support capability;technological innovation; improving energy efficiency;diversified development;deepening reform, building system and mechanism for promoting energy sustainable development;enhancing energy "going out" and "bringing in" level. All the above measures effectively promoted China's energy supply security and provide a good opportunity and the environment for China's energy development. In the long run, with comprehensive national power increasing and technological progress, there is a big potential for China's energy supply, and the energy supply security has greater room for improvement.

Key words: energy supply security, set pair analysis, evaluation criterion, obstacle degree, China