清代（1816—1911年）霍乱流行的时空特征、危险模拟与边界探测

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180636

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

霍乱是清代1820年左右传入中国的新型烈性传染病,迄今仍是人类生命健康安全的重大威胁之一。本文运用ArcGIS时空分析、MaxEnt生态位模拟、BoundarySeer边界探测等方法对清代的霍乱流行进行分析,结果表明：① 清代霍乱的流行频度为77%,对整个清代疫灾的流行贡献了约21.32%的广度。② 霍乱在中国的适生范围广,东部沿海为最佳适生区;中国不同区域霍乱流行的危险等级差异显著,并呈现自东向西递减、南方高于北方的总体特征;距海距离、海拔高程、日照时数、最高气温是影响霍乱流行的主要因素,贡献率分别为29.3%、22.4%、16.1%和7.7%。③ 霍乱流行的边界性特征明显,第一边界是以凤阳为圆心,以凤阳-夹江直线距离为半径（约1300 km）与国界线或海岸线围合的圆弧圈,界内包含97.65%的霍乱流行事件;第二边界参照霍乱高适生度分布线,该线迤东包括中国东、中部省份;第三边界是由霍乱主要网络构成的围合区,总体上掩及环渤海、长三角和珠三角等东部沿海一线。

关键词: 霍乱, 时空特征, 危险模拟, 边界探测, 清代（1816—1911年）

Abstract:

Cholera was a new type of severe infectious disease which was introduced into China around 1820 in the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911), and the "localization" process was completed rapidly. At present, it is still one of the major threats to the health and safety of human life, and sometimes it causes heavy casualties. In this paper, the spatial-temporal analysis, danger simulation, and boundary detection methods are used to analyze the cholera epidemic in the late Qing Dynasty (1816-1911). The results showed that: 1) because of the strong intervention of cholera, the frequency of the cholera was 77% in the last 100 years in the late Qing Dynasty (1816-1911) which was equivalent to outbreak every 1.3 years, and the contribution rate to the epidemic breadth promotion in the late Qing Dynasty (1816-1911) was about 21.32%, which means that nearly a quarter of the epidemics in the whole Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) were caused by cholera. 2) Cholera had a wide range of suitable habitats in China of the late Qing Dynasty (1816-1911), and the eastern coast was the best suitable habitat. The risk level of cholera epidemic in China was high, and the risk level gradually decreased from east to west, and the risk level in the south was higher than that in the north. There were many factors influencing cholera epidemic, in which the distance from sea level, elevation, sunshine hours, and the maximum temperature were the main factors, and their contribution rates were 29.3%, 22.4%, 16.1% and 7.7%, respectively. This indicates that cholera epidemic was sensitive to geographic factors such as temperature, water source, sunshine and topography. 3) The borderline characteristics of cholera epidemic were obvious in the late Qing Dynasty (1816-1911). The first border was a circular arc with Fengyang as the center and Fengyang-Jiajiang as the radius (the linear distance about 1300 km), which contains about 97.65% of cholera epidemic in this area. The second border was the borderline of cholera high-suitability area, which includes eastern and central provinces of China, such as Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei , Hunan, and so on. The third border is the enclosed area with the main cholera network as the standard, covering the Bohai Sea, central China, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. Almost the entire eastern coastline was covered.

Key words: cholera, spatial-temporal characteristics, danger simulation, boundary detection, late Qing Dynasty (1816-1911)

李孜沫. 清代（1816—1911年）霍乱流行的时空特征、危险模拟与边界探测[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(1): 129-139.

LI Zimo. Spatial-temporal characteristics, danger simulation and boundary detection of cholera in the late Qing Dynasty (1816-1911)[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(1): 129-139.

图/表 7

表1

表2

表3

清代霍乱流行季节与县数分布"

疫灾年份	疫灾季节					疫灾县数（个）	疫灾面积（万km²）	疫灾年份	疫灾季节					疫灾县数（个）	疫灾面积（万km²）
疫灾年份	春	夏	秋	冬	NA	疫灾县数（个）	疫灾面积（万km²）	疫灾年份	春	夏	秋	冬	NA	疫灾县数（个）	疫灾面积（万km²）
1816			1			1	0.77	1874			1		2	3	1.17
1819			1	2		2	0.63	1875	1	3	2			6	0.51
1820		5	35	1	3	40	4.14	1876			4		1	5	0.32
1821	4	133	208	10	2	282	38.94	1877		16	17	1	5	26	3.77
1822	1	26	17	1	6	42	7.22	1878		10	17	4	1	21	2.93
1823		12	3			13	2.92	1879	1	1	3			5	0.37
1824	1				2	3	0.30	1880		1	2			2	0.29
1826		2	2			3	0.55	1881	2	8	17		3	23	2.50
1827	1	1				1	0.64	1882		10	8	5	2	19	3.06
1828	1	1				1	0.64	1883		19	32	2	1	37	6.00
1832	2	1	1			4	0.82	1884		7	3		4	12	1.94
1833	1	1				1	0.24	1885		7	17	2	2	22	2.84
1836			1			1	0.06	1886		8	17		4	24	1.69
1837			4			4	0.19	1887		20	18		1	29	3.27
1839			2			2	0.17	1888		19	72		7	82	13.24
1840			4			4	0.59	1889	1	2	7	1	2	12	2.39
1841					1	1	0.11	1890		9	29	4		34	4.20
1842			1		1	2	0.58	1891		15	30	1	2	32	3.32
1843		1	1	1	1	2	0.21	1892	2	23	11			27	3.76
1844		2				2	0.10	1893		4	4			7	1.30
1851		2	5	1		5	0.37	1894		12	20	1	6	30	4.24
1853			2		1	3	0.58	1895		54	55	1	13	85	14.30
1854			1			1	0.13	1896		7	10			12	1.69
1856		2	2			2	0.10	1897		4	4		3	7	1.57
1858			1		3	4	1.03	1898		4	2		4	10	1.26
1860			1		1	2	0.09	1899	1	8	8			10	1.08
1861		1	3		4	7	0.49	1900	3	9	9		4	21	2.94
1862	6	74	78	1	21	140	18.56	1901	1	21	16		13	48	19.99
1863	2	19	13		4	29	3.80	1902	13	115	86	2	34	192	50.49
1864		8	15		4	26	4.47	1903		7	8		5	16	2.79
1865		15	5	1		19	4.47	1904		5	2		4	9	13.17
1866			2	1	3	5	1.46	1905		3	3		1	7	0.63
1867		1	3		4	8	1.11	1906		5	2		1	8	1.36
1868		13	9		1	16	3.15	1907	2	4	14		6	22	3.04
1869					3	3	1.74	1908		8	8		2	18	3.84
1870				1		1	0.05	1909	1	7	20		2	28	4.29
1871	1	1				1	0.17	1910		7	3	1	2	11	2.13
1872		2				2	0.26	1911	2	2	1		5	10	1.75
1873	2		3			5	0.61	合计	52	787	1006	45	207	1662	291.87

表3

图1

图2

图3

表4

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基础数据	指标	单位	指标释义
地理环境要素	海拔高程	m	反映海拔高度差异
	河网密度	km/km²	反映河流影响差异
	距海距离	km	反映海洋影响差异
气候环境要素	年均气温	℃	反映平均气温变幅
	最高气温	℃	反映极端高温影响
	最低气温	℃	反映极端低温影响
	暖季温度	℃	反映极端温度影响
	冷季温度	℃	反映极端温度影响
	湿季温度	℃	反映雨热同期影响
	干季温度	℃	反映雨热同期影响
	温度季节性	-	反映温度变异影响
	气温年较差	-	反映温差变异影响
	年均降水	mm	反映平均降水变幅
	暖季降水	mm	反映雨热同期影响
	冷季降水	mm	反映雨热同期影响
	湿季降水	mm	反映极端降水影响
	干季降水	mm	反映极端降水影响
	湿月降水	mm	反映极端降水影响
	干月降水	mm	反映极端降水影响
	降水季节性	-	反映降水变异影响
	日照时数	h	反映太阳光照差异

预测精度（AUC）	阈值标准	适生范围（适生度）	阈值标准	危险等级（危险度）	阈值标准
较差	0.5~0.7	低	0	低危	≤ 0.01
一般	0.7~0.8	- -	- -	中危	0.01~0.10
较高	0.8~0.9	- -	- -	高危	0.10~0.30
极高	0.9~1.0	高	1	特危	≥ 0.3

省区	已知霍乱分布		预测霍乱危险等级面积占比（%）
省区	县数（个）	面积（万km²）	低危	中危	高危	特危
河北	264	34.50	14.34	17.05	37.67	30.94
辽宁	81	23.20	2.61	43.87	15.16	38.36
吉林	6	1.94	0.55	92.73	5.89	0.83
黑龙江	5	43.28	37.97	61.99	0.02	0.03
山东	226	31.98	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
山西	43	7.44	6.02	9.43	63.22	21.34
河南	35	4.86	0.00	0.00	31.70	68.30
陕西	22	3.77	0.00	10.86	74.90	14.24
甘肃	9	4.44	65.10	24.51	9.16	1.24
内蒙古	0	0.00	73.58	20.44	5.21	0.77
青海	0	0.00	93.81	6.19	0.00	0.00
新疆	0	0.00	98.84	1.16	0.00	0.00
江苏	386	34.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
安徽	32	7.75	0.00	0.00	14.05	85.95
江西	22	4.52	0.00	0.05	48.65	51.30
福建	62	9.31	0.00	0.00	62.93	37.07
台湾	4	0.88	0.00	6.79	68.50	24.71
浙江	209	23.01	0.00	0.00	7.27	92.73
湖北	33	7.11	0.00	3.11	86.50	10.39
湖南	37	9.81	0.00	0.70	73.44	25.86
广东	79	16.24	0.00	0.38	63.31	36.31
广西	39	8.69	0.00	1.26	53.12	45.62
四川	48	7.67	35.78	21.60	21.12	21.51
贵州	16	4.86	0.00	10.10	79.48	10.42
云南	4	2.19	37.37	57.55	5.04	0.04
西藏	0	0.00	98.12	1.88	0.00	0.00
合计	1662	291.87	58.86	14.23	14.64	12.27