三北防护林工程区植被绿度对温度和降水的响应

doi:10.11821/dlyj020181071

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究三北防护林工程区植被绿度对温度和降水的响应可为该区植被建设提供科学依据。基于2000—2015年的MODIS NDVI数据和气象数据,采用通径分析法分析了不同生长阶段气温和降水对三北防护林工程区植被绿度的直接和间接影响。研究发现：生长季多年平均植被绿度整体上呈现东部高西部低的空间格局,且林地>耕地>草地;生长季植被绿度呈现增长趋势,植被覆盖状况得到改善,其中耕地植被增长趋势最大。生长季升温抑制植被生长,降水量增加促进植被生长,降水量是影响三北防护林工程区生长季植被生长的关键气候因子。在不考虑降水变化影响时,升温促进植被生长,但生长季温度升高带来的降水量减少使得升温对植被生长表现为抑制作用。生长季不同时期降水量增加对植被生长均是促进作用,表现为末期>中期>初期;而气温的影响则表现为生长季初期升温促进植被生长,中期和末期升温不利于植被生长。生长季末期升温对植被生长的负效应以直接作用为主,而中期主要通过降水量变化的间接作用体现。识别生长季不同时段气温和降水对植被绿度影响的差异性,有助于全面认识和评估植被对气候变化的响应。

关键词: 三北防护林工程区, 气候变化, 植被绿度, 响应, 通径分析法

Abstract:

Exploring the responses of vegetation greenness to temperature and precipitation can provide scientific basis for vegetation construction in the Three-North Shelter Forest Program. Based on MODIS NDVI and meteorological data from 2000 to 2015, the path analysis method was used to analyze the direct and indirect effects of climatic factors on vegetation greenness in different growth stages. It was found that the multi-year mean NDVI in the growing season showed a decreasing trend from east to west, and the value was listed as follows: forest > cropland > grassland. Vegetation greenness presented an upward trend during the past 16 years, and the most noticeable increases in NDVI occurred in cropland. In the growing season, temperature rise inhibited vegetation growth, while the contributions of precipitation to NDVI were positive. Precipitation is the key meteorological factor affecting vegetation greenness in the Three-North Shelter Forest Program. When the influence of precipitation change was not considered, the warming promoted the NDVI, but the decrease of precipitation caused by warming in the growing season led to the inhibition effect. Precipitation increase was favorable to greenness enhancement in different periods, the orders of influence degree of precipitation on NDVI were, in turn, the end of growing season, the middle of growing season and the early growing season. The effects of temperature on vegetation greenness varied at different stages of the growing season. Warming in early growing season was beneficial for the vegetation growth, but in the middle and the end of growing season, it showed negative effect on plant productivity enhancement. Among them, the negative effects of warming in the end of growing season were mainly realized by direct effects, while they were mainly realized indirectly through precipitation changes in the middle of growing season. This research showed that the impact of climate change on vegetation depended on the time scale. Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish the periods in assessing the response of vegetation to climate change so that we can obtain a comprehensive understanding.

Key words: the Three-North Shelter Forest Program, climate change, vegetation greenness, responses, path analysis method

谢舒笛, 莫兴国, 胡实, 陈学娟. 三北防护林工程区植被绿度对温度和降水的响应[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(1): 152-165.

XIE Shudi, MO Xingguo, HU Shi, CHEN Xuejuan. Responses of vegetation greenness to temperature and precipitation in the Three-North Shelter Forest Program[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(1): 152-165.

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变化趋势	三北防护林	耕地	林地	草地
显著增长	41.1	55.1	39.2	34.9
非显著增长	33.1	28.6	36.2	39.8
显著降低	3.5	3.9	5.4	4.4
非显著降低	15.1	12.4	19.2	17.7

气候因子	直接影响	间接影响	综合影响
气温	0.069	-0.448	-0.379
降水	0.928**	-0.033	0.895**

		气温		降水
		正值	负值	正值	负值
生长季初期	直接影响	66.8	26.0	56.0	36.8
	间接影响	37.7	55.1	37.9	54.9
	综合影响	64.5	28.3	53.3	39.5
生长季中期	直接影响	48.1	44.7	62.8	30.0
	间接影响	63.2	29.6	47.2	45.6
	综合影响	54.9	37.9	63.4	29.4
生长季末期	直接影响	46.4	46.4	58.2	34.6
	间接影响	41.1	51.7	45.5	47.3
	综合影响	44.3	48.5	58.6	34.2

气候因子	生长季初期	生长季中期	生长季末期
气温	0.735**	-0.406*	-0.263
降水	0.100	0.590**	0.628**