地理研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (8): 1479-1489.doi: 10.11821/yj2012080012

• 气候与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变暖背景下中原腹地冬小麦气候适宜度变化

朱新玉1, 刘杰2, 史本林1, 张怡3   

  1. 1. 商丘师范学院环境与规划学院, 河南商丘 476000;
    2. 菏泽学院资源与环境系, 山东菏泽 274000;
    3. 河南商丘市气象局, 河南商丘 476000
  • 收稿日期:2012-02-14 修回日期:2012-05-18 出版日期:2012-08-20 发布日期:2012-08-20
  • 通讯作者: 史本林(1967- ),男,河南柘城人,教授,主要从事区域环境变化及旅游资源管理方面研究。E-mail:shibenlin@163.com E-mail:shibenlin@163.com
  • 作者简介:朱新玉(1981- ),女,河北邱县人,博士,讲师,主要从事环境土壤学和农业生态学研究。E-mail:tia20021201@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41140019);河南省教育厅科技攻关项目(12A170005)

Variation of climate suitability of winter wheat in Central Plains under the condition of climate warming

ZHU Xin-yu1, LIU Jie2, SHI Ben-lin1, ZHANG Yi3   

  1. 1. College of Environment and Plaining, Shangqiu Normal University, Shangqiu 476000, Henan, China;
    2. Department of Resources and Environment, Heze University, Heze 274000, Shandong, China;
    3. Shangqiu Weather Bureau, Shangqiu 476000, Henan, China
  • Received:2012-02-14 Revised:2012-05-18 Online:2012-08-20 Published:2012-08-20

摘要: 通过构建冬小麦光照、温度、降水及综合气候适宜度计算模型,探讨气候变化对冬小麦气候适宜性的影响。结果表明:冬小麦全生育期温度、光照、降水及综合气候适宜度均值分别为0.54、0.64、0.37及0.50;冬小麦对光照适宜性较好,降水是限制冬小麦生长发育的主要因子;温度和降水适宜度以0.001·a-1线性趋势下降,光照适宜度以0.002·a-1线性趋势下降,气候因子匹配效果变差对冬小麦的生长不利。冬前生长阶段温度、光照和降水适宜性较弱,各气候因子匹配效果较差。出苗-拔节期降水适宜性较强,各气候因子组合效果较差;拔节-抽穗期和抽穗-乳熟期温度与光照适宜性较强,水分胁迫较大,气候因子组合效果趋好。乳熟-成熟期光照和降水适宜性较强,综合气候适宜性变差。光照、温度和降水适宜度在全生育期的中后期与冬小麦产量的相关性比较显著。

关键词: 气候变暖, 冬小麦, 气候适宜度, 商丘

Abstract: Global climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production.Climate variability adversely impacts crop production and imposes a key constraint on agricultural production,mostly on how to enhance the yields of winter wheat,across the world.Owing to the fundamental importance of food to human welfare,crop and livestock production,we used the data of winter wheat experimental field and meteorological data of eight agrometeorological experiment stations and agrometeorological observation stations from 1991 to 2010 to establish the models of climate suitability.The variation of climate suitability in the whole growth period from 1971 to 2010 was analyzed.The results showed that the suitability degrees of temperature,sunshine,precipitation and integrated index were 0.54,0.64,0.37 and 0.50 respectively during the whole growth period of winter wheat.The sunshine suitability degree was the best,temperature suitability degree took the second place and the precipitation suitability degree was the worst.It is indicated that precipitation is the major limiting factor affecting winter wheat growth and development.It was shown that the temperature and precipitation suitability degrees decreased by 0.001 every year and sunshine suitability degree decreased by 0.002 every year from 1971 to 2010.The weaken combination effects of temperature,sunshine and precipitation were unfavorable for the growth of winter wheat.The temperature,sunshine and precipitation suitability degrees were weaker and these factors had poor combination effects in sowing to emergence period from 1971 to 2010.The precipitation suitability degree was good,sunshine and temperature suitability degrees were weaker in emergence to jointing period of winter wheat.In jointing to milk period of winter wheat,temperature and sunshine suitability degrees were good,and precipitation suitability degree was weak;and the combination of climate factors tended to be better.The sunshine and precipitation suitability degrees were good,temperature suitability degree was weaker in milk to maturity period of winter wheat;and the integrated climate suitability degree began to deteriorate.Per unit yield of winter wheat had a significant correlation with sunshine,temperature and precipitation suitability degrees in the middle-late growth period of winter wheat.

Key words: climate warming, winter wheat, climate suitability, Shangqiu